As expected the euro moved toward the upside, but it remains locked within the range between our confirmation and invalidation points. And given that this rally still doesn’t lend itself to a readily clear labeling, our most recent count remains exactly the same.
GBPUSD continues to unfold as anticipated and we still want to see further evidence to support the bearish case.
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As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached our first target at 1.0952, and came just about midway toward reaching our second target at 1.0924.
At this point, odds are the downward correction is now complete, and any movement below 1.0940 would have non-standard targets. Therefore, it’s more productive now to focus on the assumption that the market is about to head upwards, even if its intraday movement goes otherwise.
Having spent the entire day to make a new high of a measly 1-pip difference, we now have two possible short-term counts.
The euro spent the day moving strictly sideways within a 40-pip range.
I’m still not very comfortable labeling the movement from the low 1.0879, but I felt it was time post a possible, if highly speculative, count.
GBPUSD traded on down in line with the idea that a corrective bounce has run its course and that the larger degree downtrend has resumed. The focus is on down as long as the hourly invalidation point holds.
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As expected the euro moved toward the upside, but its movement was too modest to reach any of our targets.
I was hoping that by now I’d be able at least to suggest a tentative wave count, but unfortunately there still isn’t enough data. I could trace the rough shape of a leading diagonal, but I’d rather wait another day for the picture to get clearer.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside and reached our second target exactly to the pip. However, the structure of this advance cannot be definitively labeled at this point.
The general sentiment of the market should still be generally bullish, though, and we can use traditional retracement calculations to glean two common targets of the current short-term advance.
As expected the euro moved very slightly toward the downside, in a decline so modest that it failed to reach even our first downward target, before spending the day edging clearly toward the upside.
If our new count is correct, this should be the very early beginnings of a long-term rally. Therefore, today I’ll focus solely on the targets of the next few/several hours, until the pattern clears up enough to calculate more ambitious targets.
The dollar is still trying to put up a fight against the euro, but it doesn’t appear to have much traction.
Price made a new 20-pip low, and it’s possible that a bottom is still 15-30 pips away, but both the momentum and my preferred wave count suggest that the downward potential should be fairly limited.