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GBPUSD

GBPUSD 17th March, 2016

Cable unfolded exactly as expected under the alternate count and Cable unfolded upwards in an impulsive manner. Both targets were reached and exceeded and we did not calculate profit today as we had initial and final confirmation points and that setup could have been approached in various ways according to one`s trading style. We are …

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GBPUSD

GBPUSD 16th March, 2016

Cable unfolded inline with the main count`s view as Cable found a bottom and reversed directions towards the upside reaching and exceeding the main hourly count`s initial confirmation point. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and today`s main count expects Cable to temporarily unfold downwards in a corrective manner …

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EURUSD 16th March, 2016

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, and so far it’s come about about 10 pips short of reaching our first target. Now this rally is most likely complete.

There is a couple of other possible counts that would allow for price to make another high within a few days, but since all of them expect a fairly strong decline first (pretty much like our main count today), we’ll leave them out of the analysis for now in order to keep things simple.

We’ve also made slight changes to the larger-degree labels to better fit the new developments and make the count simpler and more efficient.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 15th March, 2016

Cable unfolded downwards invalidating the main hourly count and the downwards movement is more inline with the alternate count and the alternate count is yet to be confirmed. We are modifying the main count according to the latest price action and today`s main count expects that Cable has completed an expanded flat correction and a …

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EURUSD 15th March, 2016

Practically nothing changed since yesterday, except that the market made a minuscule new low. Momentum is still flat-lining, and it still looks like the stage is set for the market to have one more rally.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Pushing higher vs. Downwards Reversal ?!

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Is It Downtrend Continuation Time Yet ?! the main count expected Cable to unfold downwards to complete a five wave structure.

Cable unfolded as expected and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 235 pips in profit.

This week`s main count expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete an upwards corrective structure while the alternate count expects that Cable`s upwards correction is mature and that Cable is expected to reverse directions and unfold downwards.

It is worth noting that the reason why the alternate count is considered an alternate count is because it does not provide the best fit.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4117 — 1.5932
– Confirmation Point: 1.4390 — 1.4437
– Upwards Targets: 1.4450 — 1.4471
– Wave number: c pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُEnding diagonal

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4437
– Confirmation Point: 1.3835
– Downwards Targets: 1.3644 — 1.3607
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 14th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is unfolding downwards.

Within intermediate wave (3) black it is expected that minor wave 1 blue is complete and that wave 2 blue is unfolding upwards.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave i pink unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (iii) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Minor wave 2 blue is unfolding likely as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with waves a and b pink complete and wave c pink is unfolding upwards.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave b pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

It is likely that wave c pink is unfolding upwards as an ending diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green has started unfolding upwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.4390 and the final confirmation point is by movement above 1.4437.

At 1.4450 wave (iii) green would reach 0.618 of wave (i) green which is the common target for a third wave within an ending diagonal and at 1.4471 wave c pink would reach 0.786 of wave a pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4117 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green.

Alternate Wave Count

This count expects that wave 1 blue is incomplete and that wave v pink is unfolding downwards as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave i orange unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.3835.

At 1.3644 wave v pink would reach equality with wave i pink and at 1.3607 wave (iii) green would reach equality with wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4437 as within wave (iii) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 14th March, 2016

Cable unfolded as expected under the alternate count and both targets were reached and exceeded locking in 38 pips in profit. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and today`s main count expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete a C wave. Today`s alternate count is presented on a 6 …

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EURUSD 14th March, 2016

The euro spent the day moving slowly towards the downside, forming a slight new low and giving the correction the look of a double zigzag. Now the stage seems to be set for the market to have one more rally.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: Ready for Another Round Down?

As expected the euro continued moving strongly towards the upside, reached both our first and second targets, then exceeded them by about 50 pips to reach 1.1218.

So now that our targets have been reached, the eternal question pops up again: is this the end of the rally, or is the market still favoring the upside? That’s what we’ll try to answer this week.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1376 – 1.0516
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.0777 – 1.0636
– Wave number: Minor D
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Weekly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1714 – 1.0821
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1352 – 1.1497
– Wave number: Minor C
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Double Zigzag

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Big Picture

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.

Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).

Intermediate wave (A) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 3 reached 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 5 extended as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 161.8% the length of both minor waves 1 and 3.

Main Weekly Wave Count

This main count sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B.

Minor wave D is forming another zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Within it, minute wave a is complete, and minute wave b is either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in minute wave c to complete minor wave D.

At 1.0777 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0636 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Alternate Weekly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute waves w and x and are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave y to complete minor wave C.

At 1.1352 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.1497 it would reach 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minute wave x may not move beyond the start of minute wave w.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 11th March, 2016

Cable unfolded as expected and both targets were reached and exceeded locking in 76 pips in profit. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and today`s main count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete a C wave. Today`s alternate count does not provide us with a practical trade …

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