EURUSD 30th March, 2016

Today the euro broke through the significant resistance level at 1.1337, which was the invalidation point of our main count for the medium-term.

This is actually a good development in terms of adding clarity to the big picture, especially since it brings both daily counts into great alignment. The only downside to the labeling of the most recent movement is that it shows a rare and irregularly-shaped running flat. Still, not only is this labeling perfectly valid, it’s also perhaps the best explanation of the market action so far.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 29th March, 2016

Cable unfolded upwards confirming the alternate count and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 55 pips. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and the main count suggests that Cable has more to offer towards the upside to complete wave (b) green. The hourly alternate count expects that Cable`s …

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EURUSD: Level of Critical Resistance

After several days of slow but steady decline, the euro suddenly rallied over the past couple of days, retracing most of its recent drop.

Price is coming up against a very important resistance level. If it remains intact, we can pretty confidently expect a strong downtrend very soon. But if price breaks through this resistance, then chances are we may be headed to an even more complex corrective pattern.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1337
– Confirmation Point: 1.1057 – 1.0821
– Downwards Target: 0.9832 – 0.9160
– Wave number: Intermediate (C)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Weekly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1714 – 1.1057
– Confirmation Point: 1.1337
– Upwards Target: 1.1393 – 1.1600
– Wave number: Minor C
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Big Picture

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.

Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).

Intermediate wave (A) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 3 reached 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 5 extended as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 161.8% the length of both minor waves 1 and 3.

Main Weekly Wave Count

This main count sees that the euro had been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which formed a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor waves B, C, D and E each formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave E reached exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave C, and it made a slight overshoot above the upper trend line of the triangle, which is typical.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in intermediate wave (C), which will most likely form an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0812, with final confirmation below 1.0516.

At 0.9832 primary wave Y would reach 100% the length of primary wave W, then at 0.9160 intermediate wave (C) would reach 61.8% the length of intermediate wave (A).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1337 as minor wave 2 of intermediate wave (C) may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Alternate Weekly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Within it, minute wave a formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave b formed a running triangle labeled minuette waves (a) through (e).

Minute wave c is likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave c to complete minor wave C. This will be fully confirmed by movement above 1.1337.

At 1.1393 minute wave c would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave a, then at 1.1600 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.1057 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

EURUSD 29th March, 2016

If there’s one thing to be said about the recent movements of the euro, it’s that they appear absolutely chaotic. Price hit the invalidation point of our main count, but then it immediately reversed directions and surged upwards.

This is not to say the market action can’t be explained (because it can) — it just means that, due to the increasing complexity of the pattern, the number of possible outcomes is simply huge at this point.

Price is coming up against a very important resistance level. If it remains intact, we can pretty confidently expect a strong downtrend very soon. But if price breaks through this resistance, then chances are we may be headed to an even more complex corrective pattern.

Either way, this is a lousy time to trade without very strict money management.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 28th March, 2016

On Monday`s session, Cable unfolded as expected and first target was reached and exceeded and Cable fell short of the second target by less than 2 pips. Therefore, we will only calculate profit for the first target which locked in 50 pips in profit. We are updating both counts according to the latest price action …

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EURUSD 28th March, 2016

Even though the euro’s rally today was a humble 70-pip move, it served to confirm that the downwards diagonal was complete and that a second-wave correction had begun to unfold towards the upside.

By their very nature, corrections are usually tricky to track, and so today we have two high-probability counts. The first considers that this corrective rally is still ongoing, whereas the second expects that it has already formed its top. Both counts have nearly identical probabilities at this point.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Is Cable`s Consolidation Complete Yet ?!

This week`s main count expects that Cable has more to offer upwards in a corrective manner to complete wave (b) green.

On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave (c) green is incomplete and that it is unfolding downwards.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4515 — 1.4057
– Confirmation Point: 1.4183
– Upwards Targets: 1.4233 — 1.4285 — 1.4339
– Wave number: (b) green
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُZigzag

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4183 — 1.3835
– Confirmation Point: 1.4057
– Downwards Targets: 1.4010 — 1.3956 — 1.3902
– Wave number: (c) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse/Ending diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Before delving into the main count, we should notice that we labeled the latest downwards movement as a (a), (b) and (c) green within wave x pink. It is technically possible that the downwards leg labeled wave (a) green, can be labeled as wave i orange within wave (a) green. However, we will remain cautious and we will update that downwards movement as it unfolds.

This count expects that wave 1 blue is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with wave v pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within minor wave 2 blue, wave w pink is complete and that wave x pink has started unfolding downwards.

Wave w pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave a orange unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Wave b orange unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Wave c orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

After the completion of wave (b) green, wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

This count expects that within wave x pink wave (a) green is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange and that wave (b) green has started unfolding upwards in a corrective manner.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.4183.

At 1.4233 wave (b) green within wave x pink would reach 0.382 of wave (a) green and at 1.4285 wave (b) green would reach 50 % of wave (a) green and at 1.4339 wave (b) green would reach 0.618 of wave (a) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4057 as within wave (b) green no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4515 as wave (b) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (a) green.

Alternate Wave Count

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave x pink.

This count expects that waves (a) and (b) green within wave x pink are complete and that wave (c) green has started unfolding downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.4057.

At 1.4010 wave (c) green would reach 0.382 of wave (a) green and at 1.3956 wave (c) green would reach 50 % of wave (a) green. The final target is at 1.3902 as at that level wave (c) green would reach 0.618 of wave (a) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4183 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3835 as wave (c) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (a) green.

N.B.: It is technically possible that the sideways movement represents a triangle being underway, however it is very common to immaturely call a triangle complete therefore, we are keeping that possibility in mind which is inline with both counts.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 25th March, 2016

Cable unfolded in a -50 pips- tight range leaving both main and alternate counts valid. This consolidation is inline with the corrective structure we are tracking. We are updating both counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects that Cable has completed a five wave structure and that Cable is expected …

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EURUSD 25th March, 2016

The euro spent the day moving purely sideways, which is a significant sign that we were a bit premature in calling a bottom on this leading diagonal, and that one more leg down is to be expected.

This is all still accompanied by steadily increasing momentum, which is another sign that the real bottom (for this diagonal, at least) is very near in sight.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 24th March, 2016

targets were reached and exceeded as Cable unfolded as expected under the alternate count and found a bottom below the second target by less than 10 pips before reversing directions and moving upwards. Today`s main count expects that Cable has completed a five wave structure and that Cable is expected to unfold upwards in a …

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