EURUSD 12th April, 2016

The market chose to follow the alternate count by moving towards the upside, reaching our first target, and exceeding it by 5 pips, before immediately dropping over 100 pips within a few hours.

At this point, both of our counts today have nearly equal probabilities (with a slight advantage to the main count), and we’ll need to watch our invalidation and confirmation points to determine which one to follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Upwards Correction vs Downtrend Reversal !

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Is Cable`s Consolidation Complete Yet ?! Cable unfolded exactly as expected and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 156 pips in profit.
On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave (c) green is incomplete and that it is unfolding downwards.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action which now expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete the final leg within wave 2 of minor degree.

On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave 2 of minor degree is complete and that Cable has started to unfold downwards within wave 3 of minor degree as an impulse.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5932 — 1.4004
– Confirmation Point: 1.4460 — 1.4515
– Upwards Targets: 1.4544 — 1.4640 — 1.4690
– Wave number: y pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُDouble Zigzag

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4515
– Confirmation Point: 1.4004 — 1.3835
– Downwards Targets: 1.3721 — 1.3554
– Wave number: (c) (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 11th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that wave 1 blue is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with wave v pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within minor wave 2 blue, waves w and x pink are complete and that wave y pink has started unfolding upwards.

Wave w pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange with wave b orange unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

After the completion of wave (b) green, wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Within wave y pink it is likely that wave (a) green is unfolding upwards as an impulse.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.4460 and the final confirmation point is at 1.4515.

At 1.4544 wave y pink would reach 0.618 of wave w pink and at 1.4640 wave 2 blue would reach 0.382 of wave 1 blue and finally at 1.4690 wave y pink would reach equality with wave w pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4004 as within wave y pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue.

Alternate Wave Count

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave 2 blue.

This count expects that wave 2 blue is complete and that wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v)_green.

Wave b pink unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave 3 blue, it is likely that wave i pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards.

Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange has started unfolding downwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.4004 and the final confirmation point is at 1.3835.

At 1.3721 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green and at 1.3554 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4515 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave (iii) green is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 11th April, 2016

Cable unfolded upwards as expected reaching and exceeding the first target and second target is yet to be reached. We are updating both main hourly and daily alternate counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete a third wave. The alternate “daily” count expects …

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EURUSD 11th April, 2016

As the euro continues its overlapping, sideways movement, it becomes more probable that the upwards rally hasn’t ended just yet.

In consideration of the recent price developments, it’s now more likely that we’re in the final stages of an upwards impulse, which should put the final touches on this multi-month bullish period.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 8th April, 2016

On Friday`s session, Cable spent the day consolidating in a sideways manner leaving both main and alternate counts valid. We are updating both counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to reverse directions and unfold upwards within a third wave. The alternate “daily” count expects that Cable`s upwards correction …

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EURUSD 8th April, 2016

As expected the euro moved a bit towards the upside, following the scenario we mentioned yesterday:

“… subminuette wave ii is most likely forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C. It’ll probably continue a bit further towards the upside before completion, which should be soon.”

Our view on both the main and the alternate counts remains pretty much the same, except primarily for the price point from which we calculated the targets of the main count.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 7th April, 2016

On Thursday`s session, Cable unfolded as expected and targets were reached and exceeded and Cable is yet to show signs of trend reversal. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to reverse directions and unfold upwards within a third wave. The alternate “daily” count …

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EURUSD 7th April, 2016

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, came only 3 pips short of reaching our first target, and then immediately plunged for about 115 pips.

All technical indicators point towards a bearish reversal, and the wave count strongly suggests that a significant top has been made. And to cover all our bases, we’re including an alternate count that anticipates one more slight high before the impending reversal.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 6th April, 2016

Cable unfolded as expected and daily target was reached to the pip and the first hourly target was reached and exceeded. It is worth noting that Cable ended the day almost where it started and we will view the implications of Wednesday`s price action on Cable shortly. We are modifying the main count according to …

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EURUSD 6th April, 2016

The highlight of the day was a 4-hour period of volatility, during which the market rebounded around a short-term support area and rallied for 100 pips.

So far the recent movement has been extremely overlapping and clearly corrective. This has raised the probability of another daily count, which is very similar to the unfolding count, but fits the current pattern somewhat better.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

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