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GBPUSD

GBPUSD 15th April, 2016

On Friday`s session, Cable continued within a range and it is becoming evident that Cable is at a crossroad and even though Cable unfolded inline with the main count`s view, Cable is yet to reach either count`s confirmation point and therefore, we should remain cautious. We are updating both main hourly and alternate daily charts …

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EURUSD: Preparing for a Bearish Quarter

Since our last weekly analysis, and after very strong resistance that forced the formation of a series of spinning tops and dojis, the euro dropped as expected for over 200 pips. If our view is correct, this is only the beginning of many bearish weeks to come.

Those dojis and spinning tops are not the only evidence of this view. We also have momentum indications, Fibonacci retracement levels, and a fully mature pattern to support this count, and also to offer some insight into what will likely follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1718 – 1.0525
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.0885 – 1.0727
– Wave number: Minor D
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Big Picture

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (A) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Black wave (B) is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Main Weekly Wave Count

This main count sees that blue wave C formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced exactly 78.6% of blue wave B, and it’s most likely complete.

Within it, pink wave y formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in blue wave D, which is likely forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c. This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.1234.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bearish divergence between the highs of pink waves w and y, as well as a bearish crossover.

At 1.0886 blue wave D would retrace 61.8% of blue wave C, then at 1.0727 it would reach 61.8% the length of blue wave B.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as blue wave C may not move beyond the start of blue wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

EURUSD 15th April, 2016

On our last analysis, we expected another moderate leg down before price started an upwards correction. But the prolonged sideways-to-upwards movement that took place rather suggests that the correction had already started, and actually is almost over.

Both counts today expect downwards movement, but they differ significantly in their estimation of the length of this movement, as well as their outlook on what will follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 14th April, 2016

Cable consolidated in a tight range leaving both counts valid as it is yet to reach either count confirmation point. We are updating both main hourly and alternate daily charts and as well adding an alternate hourly count which does not provide a practical trading opportunity. However, it is presented to shed light and cover …

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EURUSD 14th April, 2016

Today the market continuing moving unsteadily towards the downside for another 50 pips, in spite of clearly rising momentum. This leaves both of our counts perfectly valid, with only minor modifications to the recent labels.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 13th April, 2016

On Wednesday`s session, Cable unfolded downwards which is more in line with the alternate daily count but it should be noted that Cable is yet to reach either count confirmation point. We are modifying the main hourly count according to the latest price action and the main count expects that Cable`s latest upwards movement -even …

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EURUSD 13th April, 2016

The euro witnessed two of the most consistently-trending days in the past few weeks, and the price direction was down throughout. Add to this the bearish divergence in momentum and the clarity of the unfolding pattern, and we may just have the beginning of a long-term downtrend (which is our current main view).

However, our alternate count from yesterday is still in play, and its target have already been reached and exceeded without invalidation, so there’s still room for price to make a new high before it finishes this tiresome upwards correction.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 12th April, 2016

Cable unfolded upwards as expected reaching and exceeding the specified target locking in 24 pips in profit. We are updating both main hourly and daily alternate counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete wave (a) green. The alternate “daily” count expects that Cable`s …

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EURUSD 12th April, 2016

The market chose to follow the alternate count by moving towards the upside, reaching our first target, and exceeding it by 5 pips, before immediately dropping over 100 pips within a few hours.

At this point, both of our counts today have nearly equal probabilities (with a slight advantage to the main count), and we’ll need to watch our invalidation and confirmation points to determine which one to follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Upwards Correction vs Downtrend Reversal !

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Is Cable`s Consolidation Complete Yet ?! Cable unfolded exactly as expected and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 156 pips in profit.
On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave (c) green is incomplete and that it is unfolding downwards.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action which now expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete the final leg within wave 2 of minor degree.

On the other hand, the alternate count expects that wave 2 of minor degree is complete and that Cable has started to unfold downwards within wave 3 of minor degree as an impulse.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5932 — 1.4004
– Confirmation Point: 1.4460 — 1.4515
– Upwards Targets: 1.4544 — 1.4640 — 1.4690
– Wave number: y pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُDouble Zigzag

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4515
– Confirmation Point: 1.4004 — 1.3835
– Downwards Targets: 1.3721 — 1.3554
– Wave number: (c) (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 11th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that wave 1 blue is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with wave v pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within minor wave 2 blue, waves w and x pink are complete and that wave y pink has started unfolding upwards.

Wave w pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange with wave b orange unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

After the completion of wave (b) green, wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Within wave y pink it is likely that wave (a) green is unfolding upwards as an impulse.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.4460 and the final confirmation point is at 1.4515.

At 1.4544 wave y pink would reach 0.618 of wave w pink and at 1.4640 wave 2 blue would reach 0.382 of wave 1 blue and finally at 1.4690 wave y pink would reach equality with wave w pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4004 as within wave y pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue.

Alternate Wave Count

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave 2 blue.

This count expects that wave 2 blue is complete and that wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v)_green.

Wave b pink unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave 3 blue, it is likely that wave i pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards.

Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange has started unfolding downwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.4004 and the final confirmation point is at 1.3835.

At 1.3721 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green and at 1.3554 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4515 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave (iii) green is underway.

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