Tomorrow's Prices Today
In an almost exact repeat of yesterday’s recap, he euro moved a little bit toward the upside and exceeded the projected resistance level by 6 pips to date.
The main count now warrants a small update, although its expected general behavior remains the same. The confirmation point and targets have been updated to accommodate the recent developments.
Cable pulled back as anticipated and the first target was reached to the pip. At this stage, it is possible to count wave iv as complete. However, I have some concerns regarding the length of wave waves iv and ii orange, time-wise.
Therefore, both today’s main and alternate hourly counts have almost equal probabilities.
The euro moved a little bit toward the upside and exceeded the projected resistance level by 4 pips to date.
This was permitted by the main count, by it does nothing to confirm it. The confirmation point and targets have been updated to accommodate the recent developments.
Cable extended its advance and the cited target was reached and exceeded. Today, we are going to discuss one hourly count. At this stage, backing and filling should prove corrective, paving the way for for further rallies.
As expected by the daily count, the euro moved quite decisively toward the upside, and it’s even reached and exceed the first target at 1.1396.
Now the daily chart tracks the development of the larger-degree correction and its targets anticipate further price advances, whereas the hourly chart covers the details of this correction and its targets anticipate a bearish pullback.
As expected by the hourly count, the euro saw a relatively strong decline. Price reached our first target and appears to be on its way toward the second target.
Due to the unusual daily volatility of this move, I’m not comfortable enough to label its structure on the hourly chart. Thankfully, and until the pattern clears up a bit, we already have a logical target at one degree higher.
Remember: the daily chart assumes the completion of a downward wave, whereas the hourly chart assumes that said wave is still unfolding.
GBPUSD continued to score higher highs, confirming the alternate hourly count and the first target was reached and exceeded. We continue to look for evidence to suggest that the larger degree uptrend has resumed.
The euro had a moderate rally that remained within the parameters of the hourly count, and has actually improved its wave structure and relationships. Other than adjusting its targets accordingly, the count itself remains essentially the same.
Remember: the daily chart assumes the completion of a downward wave, whereas the hourly chart assumes that said wave is still unfolding.
The latest main count was given plenty of time to prove itself, but the market continues to stack the odds against it. Due to the shift in probability, that count has been rejected in favor of a new main count.
The new count is not without its peculiarities and question marks. Nonetheless, its probability just became slightly higher than that of the previous count.
Note that the daily chart assumes the completion of a downward wave, whereas the hourly chart assumes that said wave is still unfolding. The invalidation point of the hourly chart is not such in the typical sense, but rather it’s a level where it becomes much more likely that the downward wave is indeed complete.
Cable dropped below the main count’s invalidation point and in the process, lending credence to the alternate hourly count.
We still want to see a drop below today’s main hourly count to gain confidence in the idea that the countertrend decline is in force. A post above the main hourly count invalidation point will suggest that a bottom has been registered.
