Tomorrow's Prices Today
Cable firmed up a bit in today’s activity and at this juncture, the bullish count remains on thin ice. It would take an impulsive advance to regain confidence in the bullish interpretation.
On the other hand, we would still want to see a decline below the main count’s invalidation point to imply that the bearish view is in action.
The euro had another moderate round of decline, showing that its second-wave correction wasn’t over yet. The most recent development revealed another possible pattern for this correction, which suggests that it’s very nearly complete.
The hourly count covers the details of this last phase of the decline. Once price breaks above its invalidation point to the upside, the targets of the daily count will come into effect.
The lack of upside follow-through along with the corrective nature of today’s action, leave the bullish count on thin ice and favors the alternate scenario. We would still want to see a decline below the main count’s invalidation point to imply that the bearish view is in action.
The euro followed the main count, with two minor variants. Firstly, the expected decline was preceded by a rather sharp rally. And, secondly, the decline failed to reach the expected downward target by 5 pips.
As things stand now, it’s possible that price will make a final downward push in order to reach that target. Nonetheless, even if that happens, the downward potential should be quite limited.
GBPUSD remains locked in its sideways consolidation and bot counts remain valid.
At this stage, both counts have almost equal probabilities and if the bullish count is correct, the market needs to prove it and rally from current levels. On the other hand, a decline below the main count’s invalidation point would imply that the bearish view is in action.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached our first target, and has come 7 pips short of reaching our second target.
There’s a reasonable possibility that this down-move is complete, in which case the market should start gunning for the targets of the daily chart. However, it’s a bit more likely that one final push downwards is in order, which is where the targets of the hourly chart come into play.
Cable has just shown its first bullish signal on the daily chart, after a couple of days of bearish correction. Our last count is still in effect, and we’re waiting for price to reach our first confirmation point.
N.B. from Tamer Elzein: I’m filling in for Nady today, so I hope you’ll forgive any differences you may notice in today’s content or charts.
The euro made a feeble attempt at scoring another high, which resulted in its exceeding the previous hourly high by only 10 pips. This possibility was already covered, and the market is still perfectly within the bounds of our latest count.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside, reached our first target at 1.1402, and came only 4 pips short of reaching our second target at 1.1428.
The euro managed to fight its way toward a very slight new high above 1.1464, but it came to a sudden halt 1.1472, which was 14 pips lower than our expected target for its final rally.
The sharp decline that followed, which managed to break below the previous support, appears convincing enough to be the first leg of a corresponding downward correction.
