Tomorrow's Prices Today
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached our first target at 1.1024, and exceeded it by 9 pips.
The details of this move don’t present themselves as a clear pattern just yet, so for now we’re focusing more on its general direction and targets.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside, passed our confirmation point, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 6 pips.
GBPUSD dropped to a lower low as anticipated, finishing the final leg of an impulse. So without further ado, let’s jump into the details of the bounce from the most recent swing low!–more–>
Synopsis: Near-term, a push above 1.2264 will favor the ongoing wave v orange of (a) green scenario with nearby resistance around 1.2283. On the downside, a decline below 1.2210 would imply that wave (a) green of wave iv pink has run its course and that a corrective retreat is underway.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2210
– Confirmation Point: 1.2264
– Upwards Target: 1.2283
– Wave number: v orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 4th September, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon, waves (1) through (4) black are complete and wave (5) black is underway.
Within wave (5) black, waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is in force.
Wave A blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z pink.
Within wave C blue, waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is subdividing lower.
Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2264.
At 1.2310 wave iv pink would reach the area where a fourth wave of one lesser degree — i.e., wave (iv) green –, which is a common target for a fourth wave. At 1.2422 wave iv pink would have traveled 0.382 times the length of wave iii pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2866 as an overlap with that level would negate the idea that an impulse (five-wave pattern) is unfolding.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count suggests that wave iii pink has bottomed and that a countertrend bounce labeled wave iv pink has started.
Wave (iii) green of wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iii orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Wave (iv) green subdivided into a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Within wave iv pink, it is likely that wave (a) green is in its late stages as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2264.
At 1.2283 wave v orange would have traveled 0.5 times the length of wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2210 as within wave v orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave. It is worth noting that a decline below that level would indicate that wave (a) green has peaked and that wave (b) green has commenced.
Yesterday I assumed (rather prematurely, I should add) that the first sub-wave of a new multi-day rally was complete, and so I proposed that a small, downward correction was in order. Clearly, however, that first move upward was anything but complete.
The euro spent the day edging upward. And while it didn’t break any records in terms of price coverage (it only gained 70 pips), the move was consistent and had all the characteristic of an impulsive wave.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, passed our confirmation point, reached our target, and exceeded it by 4 pips.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside and passed our confirmation point.
Having revised the big picture on the latest monthly chart, a revision of both the daily and hourly charts has become necessary.
As the euro’s decline becomes more intricate and persistent, it’s time to introduce different wave labeling that’s gaining more support from both the price action and the wave count.
Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: –
– Confirmation Point: 1.1412
– Upwards Target: 1.1930 – 1.2421 – 1.2912
– Wave number: Cycle (x)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Flat
Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Monthly Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving generally toward the downside in a triple combination labeled teal waves w, y and z.
Teal wave y formed a zigzag labeled maroon waves A, B and C.
Teal wave (x) is likely forming a flat labeled maroon waves A, B and C.
Maroon wave A formed a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).
Maroon wave B is likely forming a double zigzag labeled black waves (W), (X) and (Y).
This wave count expects the euro soon to start moving toward the upside in maroon wave C to complete teal wave (x). This would be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.1412.
At 1.1930 teal wave (x) would retrace 38.2% of teal wave y, then at 1.2421 it would retrace 50% of its length, then at 1.2912 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count may find support around 1.0340 where maroon wave B would retrace 100% of maroon wave A.
GBPUSD traded on up, casting doubts on the idea that wave (iii) green had more in store. I am modifying the subdivisions of wave iii pink to provide the best fit.[View Wave Counts & Charts…]
After a lot of convoluted and aimless sideways movement, the euro formed a triple-bottom on severely bullish momentum divergence.
The third bottom of the trio did manage to break below the previous bottom, but just barely, before price soared 100 pips towards the upside.
This requires a slight adjustment to the main hourly count and its targets, but the larger picture remains precisely the same.
