The euro saw no substantial movement, which leaves our previous counts exactly the same.
The market moved effortlessly and decisively above 1.1676, thereby invalidating my main count which expected an immediate downward turn.
This presents a difficult choice in terms of wave analysis: either we arbitrarily state that the decline from 1.1996 is complete (even though its structure on the hourly chart doesn’t support this statement at all), or we adopt a rare but valid count that does make sense of this internal structure.
I personally prefer always to err on the side of objectivity, so I’m choosing the second option. At the same time, I’m posting the first option as an alternate, just to cover all our bases, even though I’m very wary of this view.
Very little price action to comment here today.
To recap, no solid evidence yet to suggest that it has run its course. At this stage, both counts have almost equal probabilities. As always we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be met, to determine the highly probable count.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside, reached our first target, and is now hovering not far below our second target.
I was hoping the hourly chart would show a bearish candlestick or a turn in momentum to suggest that this upward correction may be over before I published this analysis, but unfortunately there’s been neither just yet.
Instead, I’m posting a very early confirmation point that should be viewed as a tentative signal of downward reversal, along with a more solid confirmation point that will finally signal the conclusion of this upswing.
Cable dipped lower, in line with the ongoing wave (v) green scenario, reaching the cited 1.3239 level.
No solid evidence yet to suggest that it has run its course. At this stage, both counts have almost equal probabilities. As always we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be met, to determine the highly probable count.
The euro took a fairly strong beating as the market continued to decline in an aggressive manner.
This bearish impulse seems to have hit a temporary bottom. But now that momentum has turned bearish again on both the daily and hourly charts, and we have to account for these new bearish waves, I find myself having to re-label the entire decline from 1.2555 in order to make sense of the price action so far.
The new count sees the market in the final leg of a strong third wave down. Judging by the new wave pattern and its momentum signature, there seems to be some room for another decline — although it shouldn’t be anywhere as strong as the previous ones.
On the hourly chart, however, I think today may turn out to be a consolidation day, as the market seems to need some time to digest all this recent upheaval.
Cable inched down and the minimum requirement that we were looking for (i.e., a dip below the most recent low) was met.
If we are on the right track, lower lows should prove limited and a corrective advance should be just around the corner.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached the first target, and exceeded it by 9 pips.
So far the main count is working out very nicely. If today follows suit, the market should be ready for a sizable upward correction that should last a couple of weeks or more.
If I’m correct about this, we’re catching this upturn on the very first day of its development with a very good reward-to-risk ratio. However, since the trend has been downward for quite a while, I need to see confirmation from both price and pattern before I can put my full confidence in this view.
Therefore, while the hourly chart follows my assumption of a new uptrend, the daily chart will continue to cover the possibility that the downtrend is still ongoing until I see a clear reversal signal at that level.
Cable traded lower and both cited targets were reached and exceeded. Today’s count expects one more push lower with no high confidence target.
On the other hand, the alternate count continues to explore upward corrective possibilities.
As expected the euro moved upwards and, so far, it has remained within the projected resistance. Ideally, the market should now begin its final downward leg to complete an ending diagonal.