Tomorrow's Prices Today
Not much action since our last update. We want to see a sharp five-wave decline to complete the pattern we have been tracking.
Near term, Cable is expected to decline and any backing and filling should prove corrective. Today’s main count expects the resumption of the downtrend while the alternate hourly count explores the possibility of an ongoing short term countertrend advance.
The market saw a strong downdraft on the heels of the all-around positive U.S. job report, pushing price below 1.1777 and invalidating our short-term count.
But even though there are reasons to expect at least a moderate downwards correction, it’s wise to remember a lesson we should have learned from this market over the past weeks: one bearish day does not make a downtrend.
I’m proposing two counts on the daily charts today, each having virtually the same probability. I’m favoring the bullish count only because the market has been very strong lately, and I don’t want to short it prematurely. Another reason is that the bullish count is easier to invalidate. Other than that, it’s really too early for me to lean one way or the other.
The jury is out on whether the decline off wave (ii) high completes a five-wave pattern, if it does, then we should expect a smaller degree countertrend advance before a sharp decline within wave (iii).
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On Thursday’s session, Cable unfolded lower in line with the bearish outlook. Continue to look for lower as long as Cable remains below the invalidation point.
The main count expects that Cable should not linger in current levels and that an impulsive decline should soon follow towards the cited target levels.
N.B.: My sincere apologies for the technical glitch. I published that analysis in its usual time, but somehow it did not go through. As an apology for that glitch, I will publish an update shortly.
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Very little has changed in the market today, leaving our current count exactly as it was yesterday.
Cable unfolded higher confirming the alternate count. First target was reached and Cable fell short of the second target by less than 2 pips. The main count expects Cable to reverse gears and unfold lower within a fifth wave.
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As expected the euro moved towards the upside, passed our confirmation points, and came 5 pips short of reaching our target.
By all objective measures, the euro seems to be running out of steam. The rally may not be over just yet, but if my count is correct, then it should be in its very latest stages. Momentum is also waning consistently, and it even shows an overbought condition on several time frames. Even the period of political and economic volatility, which probably played a large role in the recent market developments, is coming to an end soon.
Cable poked above 1.3241 and reversed directions promptly. Cable remains above the upper boundary of its diagonal channel. To gain confidence in the main count we want to see Cable unfold sharply downwards below the specified confirmation point.
On the other hand, an advance above Tuesday’s high would increase confidence in the alternate daily count.
We will wait for either counts’ confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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The market moved largely sideways with a very slight bearish slope, barely exceeding the support range presented in our last analysis. This keeps our current count pretty much as it was.
We got the final thrust that the main count called for. The upward thrust coincided with a test of the upper boundary of the corrective price channel. If we are on the right track, the upper boundary should remain substantially intact to keep the bearish interpretation valid.
On the other hand, an advance above today’s intraday high would increase confidence in the alternate daily count.
We will wait for either counts’ confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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