Tomorrow's Prices Today
The euro keeps losing price-ground, but these losses remain modest and appear to lack momentum.
Even though the overall trend should remain downwards, it’s highly likely that we’ll continue to see a lot of up-and-down swinging over the next several days, and possibly even over the next couple of weeks.
Without much ceremony, the euro market finally made up its mind and decided to follow the alternate count, registering what appears to be a clear, five-wave structure toward the downside.
This signaled the completion of the first leg up of the long-term upward motion, which in turn marked the beginning of a new, short-to-medium-term corrective wave downwards.
Today the euro spent the day practically asleep. Prices stepped up less than 30 pips, before reversing to end the day almost where they started, leaving both of our counts exactly the same.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached and exceeded our first target at 1.1085, and is now only 5 pips short of reaching our second target at 1.1058.
My impression is that the rally from 1.0879 still has one more advance left to complete its five waves upwards.
However, given the strength of the most recent decline, I’m proposing another count that covers the possibility of its being the first leg of a bigger correction at one degree higher.
There is no clear-cut way to choose one count over the other at the moment. We’ll have to wait and see how today unfolds and then make an educated judgment tomorrow.
Yesterday I mentioned that the ascending wave pattern in the euro was “almost” complete, but that turned out to be an understatement. As price moved below the invalidation point at 1.1127, we can confidently that the third wave upward has run its course, and some measure of corrective action is now taking place.
Cable drifted higher which is inline with the bullish outlook. However, prices are yet to eclipse the main count’s confirmation point to lend credence to the ongoing uptrend.
On the other hand, a decline below the alternate count’s confirmation point would imply that a countertrend move is in force.
As always, we will wait for either count’s confirmation point to be met to determine the highly probable count.
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Before reaching our first target, the euro lost its footing (along with 50% of the gains it had made on October 30th). Quickly, however, it managed to right itself and recoup 90% of its losses in a few hours, reaching almost all the way back to the same high of 1.1175 once again.
Throughout all of this, price has respected the invalidation point of the main count. The wave pattern itself is almost complete and, with its targets close in sight, it’s time to prepare for the next phase of market movement.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside and has just passed both of our confirmation points.
While there are certain aspects of this count that just don’t sit very comfortably with me, I simply cannot deny the fact that this count is still the best fit for all the price movement that’s taken place since the low of 1.0879 on October 1st.
The euro barely moved at all today, except for an embarrassingly modest advance of about 35 pips, leaving our count exactly the same.
There are minor signs, such as the market’s respecting the ascending trend-line on the hourly chart, which can be interpreted as supporting evidence for the main count, but they’re not conclusive. We still have to wait for an actual break above our confirmation point(s) for a bona-fide signal.
The euro suffered a measurable decline, relative to its recent gains over the past couple of weeks.
So far, this decline hasn’t invalidated the main bullish count, but it’s dangerously close to doing so. The daily chart has an invalidation point which accounts for the possibility of the euro being in a deep, corrective mode. However, until the invalidation point of the hourly chart is breached, the wave count suggests that there should be another rally.
