Tomorrow's Prices Today
The dollar is still trying to put up a fight against the euro, but it doesn’t appear to have much traction.
Price made a new 20-pip low, and it’s possible that a bottom is still 15-30 pips away, but both the momentum and my preferred wave count suggest that the downward potential should be fairly limited.
Before getting to business, I must first apologize for my extended absence over the past two weeks. A combination of serious illness and unforeseen familial complications had me completely crippled, and despite all my efforts, I failed to balance my personal and professional lives. Of course, this is never an excuse — I just hope it can serve merely as an explanation.
This month I had a lot more time to review the price action of the past several years and compare the probabilities of the various possible wave counts that can explain the movement of the euro during that period.
Consequently, I think I was a little rash in publishing the most recent count as the main count. While it remains technically correct with a high probability, it should actually be the “second in line,” right after the count I’m proposing today.
Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0340
– Confirmation Point: 1.1412
– Upwards Target: 1.2555 – 1.3120 – 1.4489
– Wave number: Primary 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Monthly Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving generally toward the upside in a motive wave labeled maroon waves 1 through 5.
Maroon wave 1 formed an impulse labeled black waves (1) through (5).
Maroon wave 2 has been forming a double zigzag labeled black waves (W), (X) and (Y). It has retraced nearly 78.6% of maroon wave 1, and it’s either complete or near completion.
This wave count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in maroon wave 3. This would be tentatively confirmed by movement above 1.1412.
Maroon wave 3 will have to form an impulse labeled black waves (1) through (5).
At 1.2555 maroon wave 3 would retrace 100% of maroon wave 2, then at 1.3120 it would reach 100% the length of maroon wave 1, then at 1.4489 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.0340 as maroon wave 2 may not move beyond the start of maroon wave 1.
Cable traded on up, implying that the countertrend bounce that we have been tracking has yet to run its course. GBPUSD failed to reach the upside target by 3 pips. Whether a top is in place, remains to be seen. –more–>
Synopsis: A push above 1.2583 will imply that wave iv pink remains in play with nearby resistance around 1.2585. Conversely, a decline through 1.2326 and more importantly, 1.1958 would open the door for lower lows with support around 1.1875 and if exceeded then to 1.1707.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2583
– Confirmation Point: 1.2326 — 1.1958
– Downwards Targets: 1.1875 — 1.1707
– Wave number: (v) pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 23rd September, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon, waves (1) through (4) black are complete and wave (5) black is underway.
Within wave (5) black, waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is in force.
Wave A blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z pink.
Within wave C blue, waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is subdividing lower.
Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2583.
At 1.2585 wave iv pink would have traveled 0.5 times the length of wave iii pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2326 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave. A decline below that level would suggest that wave (iv) pink is complete and that wave (v) pink has started.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count explores the possibility that wave iv pink has peaked and that the larger degree downtred has resumed.
Wave (iii) green of wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iii orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Wave (iv) green subdivided into a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.
Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave (b) green unfolding as a triangle labeled waves a through e orange.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2326 and the final confirmation point is at 1.1958.
At 1.1875 wave v pink would have traveled 0.5 times the distance from the start of wave i pink to the end of wave iv pink. At 1.1707 wave v pink would have traveled 0.618 times the distance from the start of wave i pink to the end of wave iv pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2583 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave.
Cable traded on up as anticipated, exceeding the cited targets. It is early to tell whether the countertrend bounce that we have been tracking has run its course. Therefore, the daily count explores the ongoing corrective bounce scenario, while today’s hourly count focus on the implications of a top being in place. –more–>
Synopsis: A push above 1.2509 will imply that wave iv pink remains in play with resistance around 1.2585. Conversely, a decline through 1.2326 and more importantly, 1.1958 would open the door for lower lows with support around 1.1825 and if exceeded then to 1.1797.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2509
– Confirmation Point: 1.2326 — 1.1958
– Downwards Targets: 1.1825 — 1.1797
– Wave number: (v) pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 16th September, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon, waves (1) through (4) black are complete and wave (5) black is underway.
Within wave (5) black, waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is in force.
Wave A blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z pink.
Within wave C blue, waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is subdividing lower.
Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2509.
At 1.2585 wave iv pink would have traveled 0.5 times the length of wave iii pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2326 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave. A decline below that level would suggest that wave (iv) pink is complete and that wave (v) pink has started.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count explores the possibility that wave iv pink has peaked and that the larger degree downtred has resumed.
Wave (iii) green of wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iii orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Wave (iv) green subdivided into a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.
Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave (b) green unfolding as a triangle labeled waves a through e orange.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2326 and the final confirmation point is at 1.1958.
At 1.1825 wave v pink would have traveled 0.786 times the distance from the start of wave i pink to the end of wave iv pink. At 1.1797 wave v pink would have traveled 1.382 times the length of wave i pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2509 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave.
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 3 pips.
The euro just went through a whiplash action, where the market suddenly plummeted 140 pips in two hours, only to recoup all of its losses, and then some, with an advance of 180 pips.
The euro moved largely sideways, still contained within the range of the preceding decline. Therefore, our main count remains almost exactly the same.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside, but it remains locked within the range between our confirmation and invalidation points. And given that this rally still doesn’t lend itself to a readily clear labeling, our most recent count remains exactly the same.
GBPUSD extended its advance, hitting the cited targets, before reversing gears in a corrective manner to complete a corrective retreat.
The most recent advance suggests that the wave count we retraced is on track. Short-term, the focus in on up!–more–>
Synopsis: Near-term, a push above 1.2386 will favor the ongoing wave (c) green scenario with nearby resistance around 1.2422 and then 1.2474.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2252
– Confirmation Point: 1.2386
– Upwards Targets: 1.2422 — 1.2474
– Wave number: (c) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 6th September, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon, waves (1) through (4) black are complete and wave (5) black is underway.
Within wave (5) black, waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is in force.
Wave A blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z pink.
Within wave C blue, waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is subdividing lower.
Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2386.
At 1.2422 wave iv pink would have traveled 0.382 times the length of wave iii pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2866 as an overlap with that level would negate the idea that an impulse (five-wave pattern) is unfolding.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count suggests that wave iii pink has bottomed and that a countertrend bounce labeled wave iv pink is underway.
Wave (iii) green of wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave iii orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Wave (iv) green subdivided into a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Within wave iv pink, it is likely that waves (a) and (b) green are complete and that wave (c) green has started.
Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2386.
At 1.2422 wave iv pink would have traveled 0.382 times the length of wave iii pink. At 1.2474 wave (c) green would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave (a) green.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2252 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % times the length of its first wave.
