Little has changed since yesterday as the euro continued to oscillate within an increasingly tightening range. Our last count remains, more or less, exactly the less.
Not much to add here. To recap, the drop below 1.2695 confirms the bearish interpretation. The main count expects a corrective bounce before registering lower lows. On the other hand, the alternate count explores the possibility that the larger degree downtrend has re-ignited and immediate lower lows are in store.
As the euro continued its wild up-and-down swinging, the previous main count no longer looks viable, but another very interesting pattern has just appeared on the chart.
If you’re a student of the Elliott Wave Principle, I know you’re going to enjoy this count, whether or not the market ends up confirming it.
The drop below 1.2695 confirms the bearish interpretation. The main count expects a corrective bounce before registering lower lows. On the other hand, the alternate count explores the possibility that the larger degree downtrend has re-ignited and immediate lower lows are in store.
As expected the euro moved toward the upside, albeit after a very modest decline which remained above even the tentative invalidation point. We’re still waiting for a break above the confirmation point in order to have full confidence in the main hourly count.
Cable scored a slightly lower low for the move, respecting the main count’s invalidation point. A drop below that level would favor the alternate thrust out of a triangle scenario. Meanwhile, we will keep both counts on the table until the market makes up its mind.
The last count of the euro expected a fairly limited upward push, followed by a deep corrective decline. The euro ignored the first part of the forecast and went straight to the second part.
Details on the hourly chart are still a bit hazy, so we’re going to cover it swing-by-swing until things clear up.
The extended period of sideways consolidation lends credence to the triangle scenario. Triangles always precede the final leg of the wave structure at the next wave degree of trend. The subsequent move is either very quick or rather lengthy.
To recap, the bullish count remains on thin ice. It would take an impulsive advance to regain confidence in the bullish interpretation.
On the other hand, we would still want to see a decline below the main count’s invalidation point to imply that the bearish view is in action.
Have a great weekend!
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As expected the euro moved toward the upside, reached our first target at 1.1390, and exceeded it by 11 pips. The market has been trying since then to retest that level.
The main count posits that the upward potential of this rally has become fairly limited, but the pattern is probably still incomplete, which means price is likely to attempt another, extremely modest push upward.
As expected the euro completed its the decline once the market hit the midpoint between our two expected targets, and then broke above the invalidation point to the upside, almost fully confirming that a new rally has begun.