As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached our target at 1.2316, and exceeded it by 17 pips.
Shortcuts
GBPUSD 11th April, 2018
The upside drift clouds the short-term picture. The main count expects that a final push is in order to complete a smaller degree countertrend advance before dropping lower, but until such a decline is in play, the jury remains out on whether Cable would respect its 1.4346 swing high.
On the other hand, a push above the 1.4346 swing high would dramatically decrease my confidence in the wave (4) black scenario. Specially since it would not provide the right look (i.e., the time relationship between waves (2) and (4) black would be rather skewed).
Therefore, I am adding an alternate count on both weekly and daily levels.
As always, we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
EURUSD 11th April, 2018
The euro registered a slight new high, which looks extremely corrective. This fits with the current count, which sees it as a b-wave within an expanded flat.
The hourly chart is all over the place, and price movements are all choppy and overlapping. In other words, this is a very a volatile market at this point.
EURUSD 10th April, 2018
As expected the euro continued moving toward the upside and passed our second confirmation point.
It’s been a bit awkward trying to fit the price movement of the past few days into a neat count — so much so that, if a more convincing picture doesn’t present itself by the end of week, I think I’ll have to switch to a different, earlier count. I had kept that count on the side because it didn’t look quite typical on the daily chart; but if the same problem is going to crop up on the hourly chart, I might as well side with the more supported count.
EURUSD 9th April, 2018
As expected the euro started moving toward the upside. The market had a decent push, but it’s still not enough to fully confirm our count. In other words, the situation remains pretty much unchanged.
GBPUSD 6th April, 2018
The lack of downside follow-through is a concern for the bearish interpretation. If a major top is in place, Cable should drop in a sharp and swift manner.
The alternate count continued to explore the idea that a bottom is in place.
In turn, that decline lowers confidence in the alternate bullish outlook, as the time relationships between waves ii and iv are becoming skewed.
As always, we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
EURUSD 6th April, 2018
As expected the euro reached our first confirmation point at 1.2990, after a virtually imperceptible dip to the downside.
My strategy still is to wait for price to hit the second resistance (confirmation) level on its way to reach the target of a new up-move.
GBPUSD 5th April, 2018
Cable has finally pushed lower, in line with the main interpretation. We would want to see further decline to gain confidence in the bearish view.
In turn, that decline lowers confidence in the alternate bullish outlook, as the time relationships between waves ii and iv are becoming skewed.
As always, we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
EURUSD 5th April, 2018
As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 5 pips.
At this point, there’s no reason to expect this downward correction to go any further. My general strategy now is to wait for price to hit one or both of my resistance (confirmation) levels in its way to reach the target of a new up-move.
GBPUSD 4th April, 2018
Very little price action to comment since our last update. We are updating both main and alternate counts according to the latest price action.
As always, we should wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
