EURUSD Weekly

EURUSD: The Euro New Year’s Analysis

The euro had a relatively bullish week that nonetheless ended on a dangerously bearish note — one that may set the tone of the entire year in 2017.

But before we get to that, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish you a fantastic new year. May all of your plans, wishes and goals come true!

My general view for 2017 has been simple and consistent: the wave pattern strongly suggests that the market is about to experience a monstrous decline, as it heads into the center point of a long-term downtrend that should drag price even below parity within a relatively short period of time.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: A Merry Christmas, and a Bearish New Year

As expected in our last weekly analysis, the market rallied towards our first target at 1.0816 and exceeded it by 58 pips.

From that point, price plummeted for over 500 pips, testing and breaking a bottom that hadn’t been touched since March 2015.

That in itself is an extremely bearish sign, but it doesn’t stop there. The wave pattern strongly suggests that the market is about to experience a monstrous decline, as it heads into the center point of a long-term bearish pattern that should drag price even below parity within a relatively short period of time.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: On the Quest Towards Parity

As expected in our last weekly analysis, the market rallied towards our first target at 1.0816 and exceeded it by 58 pips.

From that point, price plummeted for over 500 pips, testing and breaking a bottom that hadn’t been touched since March 2015.

That in itself is an extremely bearish sign, but it doesn’t stop there. The wave pattern strongly suggests that the market is about to experience a monstrous decline, as it heads into the center point of a long-term bearish pattern that should drag price even below parity within a relatively short period of time.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: A Week for Recovery?

In our last weekly analysis, we shared our expectation that the market will begin a massive downtrend, and we suggested that 1.0525 would mark the point of confirmation for this view.

Since then the market plummeted for nearly 800 pips in an impressive, uninterrupted move the likes of which we haven’t seen in nearly two years. The market did reach our confirmation point, exceeded it by only 7 pips, and has been pausing there for a few days.

This may be the last time that the euro has a chance to recover for a very, very long time.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: A Massive Downtrend Ahead?

With the intense drama of the U.S. elections – described by many as the most nerve wracking election in the recent history of the United States – it’s not very surprising that the market has had a couple of very interesting weeks as well.

It began with the euro’s sudden, swift rally of nearly 500 pips, which included the biggest single-day action we’ve seen in several months. This was immediately followed by an even more massive decline that wiped out all of the preceding rally, and then some.

Right now the odds are stacked in favor of the long-term bearish scenario. But it’s still early days to be sure, and there’s a definite possibility that this is nothing more than a whiplash of volatility within a remarkably prolonged consolidation phase. It’s interesting to note that both of these higher-probability counts are ultimately bearish.

We’re focusing this week on discussing the larger picture over the long term, and so our targets reflect this larger timeframe. Hopefully next week there will be enough new data to calculate more useful (and trade-able) targets.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: Is That It For the Euro? Probably Not Just Yet.

After a clearly bearish couple of weeks — not to mention a bearish recent history in general — it’s only natural to assume that the euro has lost the game and the U.S. dollar is back in power.

And yet, our preferred count suggests the euro is about to enter a period of recovery, where it will regain between 300 and 500 pips of its value over the span of several weeks, maybe months.

On the other hand, the possibility that a new downtrend has begun and is here to stay can’t be dismissed, and our alternate count examines the long-term consequences if that happens.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: Is That It For the Euro? Maybe Not Just Yet.

As expected the euro moved helplessly towards the downside and is now only 39 short of reaching our first target. And now the market is in one of those “decision” points…

On one hand, price is right around a cluster of support levels, in terms of both actual price and wave pattern, so it’s very likely that the downwards potential is limited.

On the other hand, we don’t want to go too early against the prevailing trend until we have solid evidence of a trend reversal, especially since we may actually be in the very early stages of a very strong downtrend.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: The Middle Game Continues in a Bearish End of Year

After price barely tested the most recent low, the market rebounded quickly towards the upside with no surprises.

This development gives higher weight to our main count, which we’ve modified slightly to provide better fitting labels.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

The good news is that, after this type of nerve-wracking inaction, the market inevitably goes into hyper-drive of activity sooner or later, usually in the direction of the previous trend. And we’re providing two competing alternatives and waiting for the market to show which one to follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: The Middle Game in a Bearish End of Year

The euro is continuing its sideways, range-bound movement as it has been doing for a year and a half now. This seeming lack of action can be brutal for long-term traders on the weekly chart, but it does occasionally provide opportunities on the daily and hourly charts (available to our premium members).

The good news is that, after this type of nerve-wracking inaction, the market inevitably goes into hyper-drive of activity sooner or later, usually in the direction of the previous trend. And we’re providing two competing alternatives and waiting for the market to show which one to follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

EURUSD: Early Days in a Bearish Couple of Months

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, printing a decline of nearly 200 pips, and passing the primary confirmation point by over 50 pips.

Neither target has been reached just yet, but they weren’t actually expected to be reached this soon anyway. If the main count is indeed correct, then this is only a very early phase in what will be several months of decline.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

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