Having expected that the euro will move a bit toward the upside, I’ll be the first to admit I never thought it could perform such an impressive rally. Then again, the euro was never a market to shy away from surprising its participants.
This advance forces a different count for the entire movement, raising its targets overall, but not changing its general outlook by much.
By moving above 1.1447, price should move higher to reach between 1.1459 and 1.1472, while remaining above 1.1365 and ideally above 1.1409.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1365 – 1.1409
– Confirmation Point: 1.1447
– Upward Target: 1.1459 – 1.1472
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 20th March, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (2) formed a running double combination labeled blue waves W, X and Y. It retraced 38.2% of black wave (1) at its highest point, and it ended a little below the 23.6% retracement level.
Black wave (3) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 1 most likely formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.
Blue wave 2 may be forming a zigzag or a flat labeled pink waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the upside in blue wave 2.
At 1.1419 blue wave 2 would retrace 61.8% of blue wave 1, then at 1.1485 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1569 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1. It’s also very likely to be invalidated by movement below 1.1175.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that blue wave 2 is likely forming a flat labeled pink waves a, b and c.
Pink wave a is likely forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Green wave (a) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Green wave (b) formed a shallow flat labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (c) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange waves i, ii and iii are complete.
Orange wave iv retraced 38.2% of orange wave iii. It’s very likely to be complete as well.
This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in orange wave v to complete green wave (c). This would be confirmed by movement above 1.1447.
At 1.1459 orange wave v would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.1472 it would reach 61.8% the length of orange wave iii.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1365 as orange wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of orange wave i. However, it’s very likely that the market will find support around what appears to be the end of orange wave iv at 1.1409.