I think it’s now very safe to say that we’re witnessing the last few hours of the euro’s advance, which began almost two weeks ago on March 7.
The decline that should follow may be somewhat strong, but it’s very unlikely to retrace all of its preceding rally. I’ll have to wait for the rally to show a concrete sign of completion before I can calculate targets for the downside.
By moving above 1.1361, price should move higher to reach between 1.1364 and 1.1375, while remaining above 1.1324.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1324
– Confirmation Point: 1.1361
– Upward Target: 1.1364 – 1.1375
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 19th March, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (2) formed a running double combination labeled blue waves W, X and Y. It retraced 38.2% of black wave (1) at its highest point, and it ended a little below the 23.6% retracement level.
Black wave (3) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 1 most likely formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in blue wave 2.
At 1.1326 blue wave 2 would retrace 38.2% of blue wave 1, then at 1.1419 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
These two targets coincide perfectly with the highs of the two upswings within blue wave 1. This adds even more confidence in this new view.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1569 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that blue wave 2 is likely forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.
Pink wave a is likely forming a leading diagonal labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green waves (i) through (iv) are complete.
Green wave (v) is likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
The lowest point of orange wave b retraced exactly 61.8% of orange wave a, and the current low of orange wave b retraces exactly 50% of orange wave a.
This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in orange wave c to complete green wave (v). This would be further confirmed by movement above 1.1361.
At 1.1364 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (iii), then at 1.1375 it would reach 78.6% of its length.
This wave count would be entirely invalidated by movement below 1.1324 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.