GBPUSD 22nd February, 2019

Not much to add here. To recap, Cable inched down in line with the bearish outlook. We still want to see an impulsive decline below the main hourly count’s confirmation points to gain confidence in the bearish interpretation.

On the upside, it would take a push above the alternate hourly count’s confirmation point to imply that higher highs remain in store.

Synopsis: By moving below 1.2896 and more importantly, 1.2773, price should continue to move lower towards 1.2693 and then 1.2546. On the other hand, by moving above 1.3219 Cable would be expected to locate resistance around 1.3277 and then 1.3388.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3219
– Confirmation Point: 1.2896 — 1.2773
– Downwards Targets: 1.2693 — 1.2546
– Wave number: iii pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 22nd February, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is underway.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.

Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.

Wave (3) black is unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave A blue within wave (3) black unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled i through v pink.

It is possible to view wave B blue as complete and that wave C blue has started unfolding towards the downside.

This count will be confirmed by movement below 1.2400.

The minimum target for wave C blue and therefore, wave (3) black is a pip below the end of wave (1) black at 1.1970. At 1.1670 wave C blue would have traveled 0.786 times the length of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3219 as within wave C blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

Today’s hourly count suggests that waves i and ii pink of wave C blue are complete and that wave iii pink is in its early stages.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave (c) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

This count will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2896 and the final confirmation point is at 1.2773.

At 1.2666 wave iii pink would have traveled the same distance as wave i pink and at 1.2496 wave iii pink would have reached 1.382 times the length of wave i pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3219 as wave ii pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i pink.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave B blue.

This count expects that wave B blue is unfolding as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink with waves w and x pink complete and wave y pink has started.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3219.

At 1.3277 wave y pink would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave w pink and at 1.3388 wave B blue would have traveled 50 % times the length of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4345 as wave B blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave A blue. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2400 as within wave B blue wave x pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave w pink.

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