As expected the euro continued moving toward the upside and has come 4 pips short of reaching our target.
Whether or not this corrective advance is over remains to be seen. That said, the underlying weakness of the rally and the general tendency of our current wave count strongly suggest that a sizable decline shouldn’t be too far away now.
By moving below 1.1344 and then 1.1315, price should move lower to reach between 1.1122 and 1.0949, while remaining below 1.1514 and ideally below 1.1402.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1514 – 1.1402
– Confirmation Point: 1.1344 – 1.1315
– Downward Target: 1.1122 – 1.0949
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th February, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (2) formed a running double combination labeled blue waves W, X and Y. It retraced 38.2% of black wave (1) at its highest point, and it ended a little below the 23.6% retracement level.
Black wave (3) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 1 is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave ii retraced just over 78.6% of pink wave i.
Pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the downside in pink wave iii. This would be confirmed by movement below 1.1233.
At 1.1060 pink wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.0953 it would reach 200% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1514 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (ii) formed a triple combination labeled orange waves w, y and z. It retraced a handful of pips less than 61.8% of green wave (i). It’s either complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro to start moving toward the downside in green wave (iii). This would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1344, and it would be further confirmed by movement below 1.1315. These are extremely early signal levels, and they need to be accompanied by a 5-wave decline in order to count as solid confirmation points.
At 1.1122 green wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.0949 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1514 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i). Ideally, price should remain below or around 1.1402.