The euro moved quite strongly (relative to the preceding rally, at least) toward the downside, dipping below the recently established support at 1.1257.
While this decline looks very impulsive, the equally impulsive-looking advance that came right before it forces me to consider both of them as parts of a larger correction. And even though I have to admit I’m not very fond of this count, it seems to me the most reasonable view at this point.
By moving above 1.1294, price should move higher to reach between 1.1332 and 1.1384, while remaining above 1.1248.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1248
– Confirmation Point: 1.1294
– Upward Target: 1.1332 – 1.1384
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 13th February, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (2) formed a running double combination labeled blue waves W, X and Y. It retraced 38.2% of black wave (1) at its highest point, and it ended a little below the 23.6% retracement level.
Black wave (3) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 1 is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the downside in pink wave iii.
At 1.1060 pink wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.0953 it would reach 200% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1514.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Green wave (ii) is most likely forming a flat (expanded or running) labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange wave a formed a very strong double zigzag labeled violet waves W, X and Y.
Orange wave b formed an even stronger zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C.
This count expects the euro to resume moving toward the upside in orange wave c to complete green wave (ii). This would be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.1294.
At 1.1332 orange wave c would reach 100% the length of orange wave a, then at 1.1384 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1248. If the market moves below this point, the most reasonable assumption will be that orange wave b is still unfolding, in which case it shouldn’t move too far south.