The latest main count was given plenty of time to prove itself, but the market continues to stack the odds against it. Due to the shift in probability, that count has been rejected in favor of a new main count.
The new count is not without its peculiarities and question marks. Nonetheless, its probability just became slightly higher than that of the previous count.
Note that the daily chart assumes the completion of a downward wave, whereas the hourly chart assumes that said wave is still unfolding. The invalidation point of the hourly chart is not such in the typical sense, but rather it’s a level where it becomes much more likely that the downward wave is indeed complete.
By moving below 1.1351 and then 1.1335, price should move lower to reach between 1.1319 and 1.1286, while remaining ideally below 1.1410.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1410
– Confirmation Point: 1.1351 – 1.1335
– Downward Target: 1.1319 – 1.1286
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 22nd January, 2019. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (2) formed a running double combination labeled blue waves W, X and Y. It retraced 38.2% of black wave (1) at its highest point, and it ended a little below the 23.6% retracement level.
Black wave (3) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 1 is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave i is possibly complete.
This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in pink wave ii.
At 1.1425 pink wave ii would retrace 38.2% of pink wave i, then at 1.1480 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1569 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave i is still unfolding, forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (iv) formed a running double combination labeled orange waves w, x and y. It’s retraced a little below 23.6% of green wave (iii) at its highest point, and it ended at the 10% retracement level.
It’s very possible that green wave (iv) is still unfolding. However, this possibility becomes highly suspect and less probable if price moves above 1.1410.
This count expects the euro to move toward the downside in green wave (v). This would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1351, and it would be fully confirmed by movement below 1.1335.
At 1.1319 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.1286 it would reach 100% of its length.
These targets are calculated from the presumed end of green wave (iv) at 1.1372.
This wave count would be practically invalidated by movement above 1.1410.
Once price moves below the confirmation points, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of green wave (iv), which currently stands at 1.1372.