We continue to look for signs to suggest that the countertrend bounce we have been tracking has run its course. We want to see prices below the main hourly count’s confirmation point to gain confidence in the bearish outlook.
Synopsis: By pushing below 1.2477 would be likely to locate support around 1.2406 and if exceeded then to 1.2199.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2812
– Confirmation Point: 1.2530 — 1.2477
– Downwards Target: 1.2406 — 1.2199
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 26th December, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.
Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.
Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.
Wave (3) black is unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue with waves A and B blue complete and wave C blue is at its early stages.
Wave A blue within wave (3) black has bottomed and wave B blue is likely in force towards the upside.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
This count will be confirmed by movement below 1.2611.
At 1.1850 wave C blue would have traveled the same distance as wave A blue.
Ultimately, wave (3) black should push below the 1.1790 swing low. We want to see more price action before calculating short-term targets.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3175 as within wave C blue no second wave may exceed more than 100 % of its first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count suggests that wave C blue has started unfolding lower with waves i and ii pink complete and that wave iii pink is underway.
Wave i pink unfolded as leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with each wave unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Within wave iii pink, waves (i) and (ii) green are likely complete and that wave (iii) green is in its early stages.
Wave (ii) green unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y orange with wave x orange unfolding as a triangle labeled waves A, B, C, D and E purple.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2530 and the final confirmation is at 1.2477.
At 1.2406 wave (iii) green would have traveled the same distance as wave (i) green and then at 1.2199 where wave (iii) green would have reached 1.618 times the length of wave (i) green.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2812 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green.