EURUSD 26th December, 2018

As expected the euro moved again toward the downside, reached our first target, exceeded it by 3 pips, and came 7 pips short of reaching our second target. It did all of this, however, in a pattern slightly different than the one anticipated by the main count.

Odds are now very much in favor of a bullish reversal, but price must first break above one (and, ideally, both) of our new confirmation points.

Most brokers and financial institutions are having holidays and intermittent service interruptions, so there’ll probably be very little price action to comment on over the coming week.

Synopsis:

By moving above 1.1438 and then 1.1485, price should move higher to reach between 1.1559 and 1.1693, while remaining above 1.1269 and ideally above 1.1342.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1269 – 1.1342
– Confirmation Point: 1.1438 – 1.1485
– Upward Target: 1.1559 – 1.1693
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th December, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).

Black wave (1) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5

Black wave (2) is forming a flat labeled blue waves A, B and C.

Blue wave A formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Blue wave B formed a triple combination labeled pink waves w, y and z.

Pink wave z formed a contracting triangle labeled green waves (a) through (e).

Blue wave C is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in blue wave C to complete black wave (2). This will be further confirmed by movement above 1.1499.

At 1.1783 blue wave C would reach 100% the length of blue wave A, then at 1.2101 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1269 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that pink wave ii formed a double zigzag labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y).

Green wave (y) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.

Orange wave b retraced 61.8% of orange wave a.

Orange wave c reached just over 100% the length of orange wave a.

This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in pink wave iii. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.1438, and it will be finally confirmed by movement above 1.1485.

At 1.1559 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.1693 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1269 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

Once price reaches our confirmation points, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of pink wave ii, which currently stands at 1.1342.

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