Instead of dipping a bit further downwards as expected, the euro slowly and awkwardly climbed about 130 pips.
The past few weeks, due to their unusual swings and overlapping movement, have proved very challenging in terms of wave analysis — and the last two days are a prime example of this erratic behavior.
Therefore, while I’m not particularly satisfied with the count I’m proposing today, I find it to be the most sensible and fitting count so far. It’s extremely important, however, to observe the confirmation and invalidation points of this count and to practice tight risk management on any position during this period.
By movement above 1.1347, price should continue higher to between 1.1413 and 1.1433, while remaining above 1.1215 and ideally above 1.1263.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1215 – 1.1263
– Confirmation Point: 1.1347
– Upward Target: 1.1413 – 1.1433
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 14th November, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is moving toward the downside in an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (1) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5
Black wave (2) is forming a flat labeled blue waves A, B and C.
Blue wave A formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.
Blue wave B formed a triple zigzag labeled pink waves w, y and z.
Blue wave C is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to move toward the upside in blue wave C to complete black wave (2). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1500.
At 1.1729 blue wave C would reach 100% the length of blue wave A, then at 1.2047 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1215 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave i is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) formed a weak impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Green wave (ii) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (iii) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange waves i and ii, under this count, are complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the upside in orange waves iii, iv and v to complete green wave (iii). This would be confirmed by movement below 1.1347.
At 1.1413 orange wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.1433 green wave (iii) would reach 161.8% the length of green wave (i).
This wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1215 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).
If the details of this count are correct, then this wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1263 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i.