GBPUSD 31st October, 2018

The nature of the bounce from the most recent lows — time-wise — dictates a small shuffling of labels, nonetheless, that modification does not change our longer-term bearish outlook. It would take a push above the main hourly count’s invalidation point to lean toward the alternate bullish interpretation.

Synopsis: By pushing above 1.2856, Cable would be likely to locate resistance around 1.2902.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2696 — 1.3084
– Confirmation Point: 1.2856
– Upwards Target: 1.2902
– Wave number: iv orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 31st October, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.

Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.

Wave (3) black is unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave A blue within wave (3) black has bottomed and wave B blue has started unfolding towards the upside.

Wave (3) black should push below the 1.1790 swing low. We want to see more price action before calculating short-term targets.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as wave B blue may not exceed more than 100 % of wave A blue.

Main Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on a 2-hour chart for clarification purposes.

Cable pushed higher in line with the idea that a smaller degree countertrend bounce was underway, before reversing gears, leaving the bounce with a corrective look, in line with the bearish call.

This count expects that wave B blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an expanded flat correction.

Within wave C blue, wave i pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green has started.

Wave (i) green unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v orange.

This count suggests that wave (ii) green has peaked as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y orange.

Within wave (iii) green, waves i through iii orange are complete and wave iv orange is in its late stages.

Wave iii orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple with wave 3 purple unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2856.

At 1.2902 wave iv orange would have traveled 0.382 times the length of wave iii orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3084 as wave iv orange may not enter the price territory of wave i orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2696 as that would imply that wave iv orange is complete and that wave v orange has commenced.

    Food For Thought:

The only difference between both main count and this count is within the subdivisions of wave B blue.

This count expects that wave B blue is unfolding as a flat correction labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Waves a pink is complete and no evidence to suggest that wave b pink has bottomed.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3258 and the final confirmation is at 1.3299.

At 1.3318 wave B blue would have traveled 0.318 times the length of wave A blue and at 1.3519 wave B blue would have traveled 50 % times the length of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2662 as within wave c pink no second wave may retrace more than 100% of its first wave.

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