We continue to look for higher to complete a countertrend advance and I am adding an alternate count that explores the possibility that the larger degree downtrend has resumed.
As always, we will wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached, to determine the highly probable count.
Synopsis: By pushing above 1.3044 Cable would likely locate resistance around 1.3095. On the downside, a push below 1.2799, would be likely to locate support around 1.2715. On the upside, a push above 2937 would open the door for higher highs toward 1.3001.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3214 — 1.2662
– Confirmation Point: 1.3044
– Upwards Target: 1.3095
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Double Zigzag
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3044
– Confirmation Point: 1.2799
– Downwards Target: 1.2556 — 1.2489
– Wave number: iii orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 30th August, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.
Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.
Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.
This count will be confirmed by movement below 1.2662.
A preliminary target exists at 1.2041 where wave iii pink would have traveled the same distance as wave i pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3363 as within wave iii pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count suggests that waves i and ii pink are complete, with wave i pink unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Within wave iii pink, waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and wave (iii) green is subdividing lower.
Within wave (iii) green, wave i orange has bottomed and wave ii orange is underway.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3044.
At 1.3001 wave ii orange would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave i.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3214 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2662 as within wave ii orange no X wave may retrace more than 100 % of its W wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange.
This count expects that wave ii orange unfolded as a double zigzag instead of a single zigzag, and therefore, this count explores the possibility that wave ii has peaked and that wave iii orange is in its early stages.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2799 and the final confirmation point is at 1.2662.
At 1.2556 wave (iii) green would have traveled 1.618 times the length of wave (i) green and at 1.2489 wave iii orange would reach equality with wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3044 as within wave iii orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Food For Thought:
The whole decline from the mid-April high is not as clear as we’d have preferred. Therefore, I have included the weekly chart, just to keep the bigger picture in-check. I am tracking a number of alternates, the most prominent of which, expects that wave A\W of wave black wave (3) is complete and that wave B\X has started. If correct, the advance should be corrective in nature, setting the stage for further decline.