GBPUSD 30th July, 2018

GBPUSD remains locked in a tight range, leaving both counts valid. We’d want to see a sharp decline to support the main count’s view.

On the other hand, an advance above the alternate’s count confirmation point would open the door for higher highs to come.

As always we will wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Synopsis: By pushing below 1.3071 and eventually 1.2957, Cable would be likely to locate support around 1.2902 and if exceeded then to 1.2810. On the other hand, by moving above 1.3214, Cable would be likely to locate resistance around 1.3275.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3214
– Confirmation Point: 1.3071 — 1.2957
– Downwards Target: 1.2902 — 1.2810
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3363 — 1.2957
– Confirmation Point: 1.3214
– Upwards Target: 1.3275
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 30th July, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.

Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.

We will be able to calculate near-term targets once wave (3) black starts to subdivide lower.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as within wave A of (3) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count expects that wave ii pink is complete and that wave iii pink has started.

Within wave iii pink, waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and wave (iii) green is in its early stages.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green, waves i and ii orange are likely complete and that wave iii orange is underway.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.3071 and more importantly, the final confirmation point at 1.2957.

At 1.2902 wave iii orange would have traveled 0.786 times the length of wave i orange — which is a preliminary target — and at 1.2810 wave iii orange would have traveled the same distance as wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3214 as within wave iii orange, no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange. This count expects that wave ii orange has yet to run its course and that it is unfolding as s double zigzag with waves W and X purple complete and wave Y purple is in its early stages.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3214.

At 1.3275 wave ii orange would have reached 0.786 times the length of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3363 as wave ii orange may not exceed more than 100 % of wave i orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3071 as within wave C purple, no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Food For Thought: The decline from 1..4377 can be viewed as a leading diagonal wave I blue. The only wrinkle with that count — the reason why this count is not shown on a chart — is that within that leading diagonal, wave (iv) pink is a tad longer than wave (ii) pink which should not be the case in the contracting leading diagonal scenario. Anyway, if that count is on the mark, we should expect higher highs to come before the downtrend resumes.

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