Cable climbed higher, reaching and exceeding the first cited target.
At this juncture, it is possible to view the countertrend advance as complete. However, we still want to see evidence to support that view before jumping on the bearish wagon. As always we will wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
N.B.: I am keeping the “Food For Thought” segment at the end of today’s analysis, since it remains relevant.
Synopsis: By pushing above 1.3214, Cable would be likely to locate resistance around 1.3275. On the other hand, by moving below 1.3071 and eventually 1.2957, Cable would be likely to locate support around 1.2902 and if exceeded then to 1.2810.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3363 — 1.3071
– Confirmation Point: 1.3214
– Upwards Target: 1.3275
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3214
– Confirmation Point: 1.3071 — 1.2957
– Downwards Target: 1.2902 — 1.2810
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th July, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.
Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.
Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.
We will be able to calculate near-term targets once wave (3) black starts to subdivide lower.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as within wave A of (3) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count expects that wave ii pink is complete and that wave iii pink has started.
Within wave iii pink, waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and wave (iii) green is in its early stages.
Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.
Wave (ii) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Within wave (iii) green, the main count suggests that wave i orange is complete and that wave ii is underway.
Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Within wave ii orange, it is possible to view waves A and B purple as complete and that wave C purple is underway.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3214.
At 1.3275 wave ii orange would have reached 0.786 times the length of wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3363 as wave ii orange may not exceed more than 100 % of wave i orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3071 as within wave C purple, no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange. This count expects that wave ii orange has run its course and that wave iii orange has commenced.
Initially, we would want to see a solid break below trendline support to hint that wave ii has topped. This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3071 and the final confirmation point is at 1.2957.
At 1.2902 wave iii orange would have traveled 0.786 times the length of wave i orange — which is a preliminary target — and at 1.2810 wave iii orange would have traveled the same distance as wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3214 as within wave iii orange, no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Food For Thought: The decline from 1..4377 can be viewed as a leading diagonal wave I blue. The only wrinkle with that count — the reason why this count is not shown on a chart — is that within that leading diagonal, wave (iv) pink is a tad longer than wave (ii) pink which should not be the case in the contracting leading diagonal scenario. Anyway, if that count is on the mark, we should expect higher highs to come before the downtrend resumes.