GBPUSD 24th July, 2018

Cable inched up in line with the alternate hourly count and the nearby first cited target was reached.

Today’s main count expects Cable to drift higher in a corrective manner before reversing gears to resume the larger degree uptrend. On the other hand, the alternate hourly count expects that a top is in place and that prices should soon give way to lower lows.

As always we will wait for either count’s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

N.B.: I have added a “Food For Thought” segment at the end of today’s analysis.

Synopsis: By pushing above 1.3177, Cable would be likely to locate resistance around 1.3206 and if exceeded then to 1.3275. On the other hand, by moving below 1.2957, Cable would be likely to locate support around 1.2927 and if exceeded then to 1.2772.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3363 — 1.2957
– Confirmation Point: 1.3177
– Upwards Target: 1.3206 — 1.3275
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3177
– Confirmation Point: 1.2957
– Downwards Target: 1.2927 — 1.2772
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 24th July, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.

Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.

We will be able to calculate near-term targets once wave (3) black starts to subdivide lower.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as within wave A of (3) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count expects that wave ii pink is complete and that wave iii pink has started.

Within wave iii pink, waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and wave (iii) green is in its early stages.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green, the main count suggests that wave i orange is complete and that wave ii is underway.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3177.

At 1.3206 wave ii orange would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave i orange and at 1.3275 wave ii orange would have reached 0.786 times the length of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3363 as wave ii orange may not exceed more than 100 % of wave i orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3159 as within wave ii orange, no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange. This count expects that wave ii orange has run its course and that wave iii orange has commenced.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2957.

At 1.2927 wave iii orange would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave i orange — which is a preliminary target — and at 1.2772 wave iii orange would have traveled the same distance as wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3177 as within wave iii orange, no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Food For Thought: The decline from 1..4377 can be viewed as a leading diagonal wave I blue. The only wrinkle with that count — the reason why this count is not shown on a chart — is that within that leading diagonal, wave (iv) pink is a tad longer than wave (ii) pink which should not be the case in the contracting leading diagonal scenario. Anyway, if that count is on the mark, we should expect higher highs to come before the downtrend resumes.

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