As expected the Euro moved toward the upside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 34 pips.
I must admit that this correction is too deep, and its rally too strong, for my liking — especially after the completion of a triangle. If the triangle is still unfolding, price may hit the invalidation point of the hourly chart, but it should ideally remain below that of the daily chart.
Synopsis: If the Euro moves below 1.1648, it will likely reach between 1.1596 and 1.1520, while it remains below 1.1743.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1743
– Confirmation Point: 1.1648
– Downward Target: 1.1596 – 1.1520
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th July, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.
Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 4 formed a running triangle labeled pink waves a through e. It’s very likely complete.
This count expects the euro to move toward the downside in blue waves 5. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1575, and it will be further confirmed by movement below 1.1508.
At 1.1342 blue wave 5 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 1.1095 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1791 as pink wave e of this triangle may not move beyond the start of pink wave d.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave i formed an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Pink wave ii formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c). It retraced 78.6% of pink wave i and, within it, green wave (c) reached 161.8% the length of green wave (a).
This count expects the Euro to start moving toward the downside in pink wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1648.
At 1.1596 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.1520 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1743 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.
Food for Thought
If the invalidation point is breached, the next most likely scenario is that pink wave e of blue wave 4 is still unfolding as a zigzag that’s about to complete its final leg.