EURUSD 24th July, 2018

As expected the Euro moved toward the downside, but then it retraced nearly two-thirds of its losses.

Normally, a 100-pip decline is a decent move. But when we place it in context, it neither really confirms nor undermines our current count.

Synopsis: The Euro is likely to move toward the downside to reach at least between 1.1573 to 1.1463, while it remains below 1.1750.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1750
– Confirmation Point: 1.1575
– Downward Target: 1.1573 – 1.1463
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 24th July, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This main daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.

Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).

Black wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.

Blue wave 4 formed a double combination labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced midway between 23.6% and 38.2% of blue wave 3, and it’s now complete.

Blue wave 5 is forming either an impulse or an ending diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in blue waves 5. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1575.

At 1.1390 blue wave 5 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 1.1142 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1791 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that pink wave ii formed an expanded flat labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c) — which is now complete.

Green wave (a) formed a double zigzag labeled orange waves w, x and y.

Green wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. It retraced 127.2% of green wave (a).

Green wave (c) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Price has now moved well below the end of orange wave i of green wave (c), which is a strong signal that green wave (c) — and, therefore, pink wave ii — are now complete.

This count expects the euro to move toward the downside in pink wave iii.

At 1.1573 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.1463 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1750.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.

Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).

Blue wave 4 is likely forming a triple combination labeled pink waves w, y and z.

This count expects the euro to be moving toward the upside in blue waves 4. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1791.

At 1.1830 blue wave 4 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 2, then at 1.1878 it would retrace 38.2% of blue wave 3.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2154 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1. It’s also very unlikely for it to move below 1.1508.

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