GBPUSD 27th April, 2018

I am back. Many thanks to Tamer for filling in while I was away.

Cable’s drop was not on my radar. However, the decline appears to be on the verge of completing a five-wave decline. At this stage, a counter-trend bounce should be just around the corner.

Without further ado, let’s delve into the analysis.

Synopsis: By moving below 1.3712, Cable is likely to locate support around 1.3698. On the upside, by moving above 1.3904, Cable would be likely to locate resistance around 1.4044 and if exceeded then to 1.4121.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3793
– Confirmation Point: 1.3712
– Downwards Target: 1.3698
– Wave number: v orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3712 — 1.4377
– Confirmation Point: 1.3904
– Upwards Target: 1.4044 — 1.4121
– Wave number: ii pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 27th April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside likely as an ending diagonal.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is likely in its early stages.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y blue.

Wave W blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave Y blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

It is worth noting that wave (v) green was a truncated fifth wave.

We will be able to calculate near-term targets once wave (3) black starts to subdivide lower.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as within wave A of (3) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

The main count suggests that wave i pink is in its late stages as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (iv) green unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (v) green, waves i through iv orange are complete and wave v orange is in its late stages.

As far as MACD study goes, MACD is showing a bullish divergence between the end of wave (iii) green and wave (v) green, suggesting that downward movement should prove limited and that it should give way to a countertrend bounce.

This count will be confirmed by movement below 1.3712.

At 1.3698 wave v orange would reach equality with wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3793 as movement above that level would suggest that wave i pink has located a bottom and that wave ii pink has commenced.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave v orange of (v) green. This count suggests that wave i pink is complete and that wave ii pink has started.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3904.

At 1.4044 wave ii pink would have traveled 50 % times the length of wave i pink and at 1.4121 wave ii pink would have traveled 0.618 times the length of wave i pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3712 as within a zigzag wave ii pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4377 as wave ii pink may not exceed the start of wave i pink.

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