EURUSD 30th April, 2018

The euro moved downward for about 75 pips today. Price hasn’t reached the invalidation point of the main count, but it certainly didn’t do anything to support it, either.

In fact, the recent movement raised the total number of charts on today’s analysis to 4: two daily and two hourly. The counts themselves are rather simple and straightforward, but the fact that they’re all at an equal footing from a technical perspective makes them quite impractical for trading purposes.

I’m hoping the situation will clear up a bit by the end of day.

Synopsis: By moving above 1.2138, EUR/USD is expected to move upward to reach between 1.2184 and 1.2259, while it remains above 1.2055. But by moving below 1.2055, it is expected to move downward to reach between 1.2013 and 1.1992, while it remains below 1.2138.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2055
– Confirmation Point: 1.2138
– Upward Target: 1.2184 – 1.2259
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2138
– Confirmation Point: 1.2055
– Downward Target: 1.2013 – 1.1992
– Wave number: Minute v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave iv formed a double combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave iii, and it should be complete or very near completion.

Green waves (w) and (x) each formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.

Green wave (y) formed a flat labeled orange waves a, b and c. It reached just over 100% the length of green wave (w).

This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2414, with an initial confirmation above 1.2216.

At 1.2463 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2714 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

Once price reaches our confirmation point, this wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2055. Until then, this wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that pink wave v is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Green wave (i) is likely forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Orange waves i and ii are now complete.

This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in orange wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2138.

At 1.2184 orange wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.2259 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2055 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.

Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).

Black wave (1) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.

Blue wave 2 retraced over 78.6% of blue wave 1.

This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in blue wave 3.

At 1.1992 blue wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of blue wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2216 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1.

If this is a series of first and second waves, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2414.

If this is a leading diagonal, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2476.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate hourly count sees that blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave iv retraced exactly 23.6% of pink wave iii.

Pink wave v is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Green wave (ii) will likely find resistance around 1.2110.

This count expects the euro to move toward the downside in green waves (iii) through (v). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.2055.

At 1.2013 pink wave v would reach 161.8% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.1992 blue wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of blue wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2138 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).

3 thoughts on “EURUSD 30th April, 2018”

  1. Pls look at my analysis. In my count wave 1 vs 3 just hit the 1.618 this seems to be a very clean impulse down. And if you count the USDX and other correlating pairs, there seems to be a trend change in all of them. I am curious to know why you still are bullish for a primary wave 5 on EUR/USD?

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kw9boKhV/

    1. Tamer Elzein

      Hey Nick. I’m really not bullish at all at this point. Your count is pretty much exactly the same as what I’ve posted as the alternate.

      I just didn’t want to swap the two counts without the original being invalidated — which, finally, we can safely say just happened.

      1. I see now, i didnt see the alternate earlier. Im hoping to get in after wave 4. I have a feeling wave 4 may be a triangle since we have serious momentum downwards and wave 2 was a sharp correction.

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