The situation in the euro as it stands now looks like this: we have two alternate counts, each with its own pros and cons, and each pointing in a direction opposite to the other.
The main count anticipates another rally that should ideally make a new high above 1.2555. From there, this count follows the alternate, which expects an immediate decline as the first stage of a devastating downtrend. The alternate looks slightly better due to the strength of the most recent decline, but the main has the advantage of being in the direction of a long-term trend.
The good news is that both counts have very strict invalidation points and, consequently, very clear confirmation points. And at the hourly level, both counts should have a similar outcome in the immediate-term and the near future.
Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to move upward to reach 1.2210 and 1.2245 initially, while it remains above 1.2055.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2055
– Confirmation Point: 1.2160
– Upward Target: 1.2210 – 1.2245
– Wave number: Micro 1
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave iv formed a double combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave iii, and it should be complete or very near completion.
Green waves (w) and (x) each formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (y) formed a flat labeled orange waves a, b and c. It reached just over 100% the length of green wave (w).
The week ended with a bearish hammer at the end of orange wave c, which is often a sign of trend reversal.
This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2414, with an initial confirmation above 1.2216.
At 1.2463 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2714 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
Once price reaches our confirmation point, this wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2055. Until then, this wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that orange wave c formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 5 formed an impulse labeled aqua waves (1) through (5).
This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in violet wave 1, of orange wave i, of green wave (i), of pink wave v. This will be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.2160.
The two most recent swing highs, which will have to serve as initial targets, are at 1.2210 and 1.2245.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2055. Movement below this point will indicate either that pink wave iv is still unfolding for a little while longer, or that the alternate daily count is in effect.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.
Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (1) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 2 retraced over 78.6% of blue wave 1.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in blue wave 3.
At 1.1992 blue wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of blue wave 1.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2216 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1.
If this is a series of first and second waves, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2414.
If this is a leading diagonal, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2476.