The euro had a surprisingly strong decline of well over 100 pips, reaching levels that it hadn’t visited since the beginning of the year.
This main daily count is look less and less likely by the day. Unfortunately, the alternate count is not without its own quirks and irregularities, so our choice is between two less-than-satisfactory options.
I’ll have to run a complete re-analysis of the situation over the weekend. But for now, I’m uploading both counts and crossing my fingers that the market will show us a clearer path by the end of the day.
Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to move downward to reach 1.2045, while it remains below 1.2110.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2110
– Confirmation Point: 1.2065
– Downward Target: 1.2045
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave iv formed a double combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave iii, and it should be very near completion.
Green waves (w) and (x) each formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (y) is forming a flat labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange waves a and b are complete, and orange wave c reached a little over 161.8% the length of orange wave a, so it too should be very near completion.
This count expects the euro soon to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2414.
At 1.2472 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2645 maroon wave B would retrace 61.8% of maroon wave A.
Once price reaches our confirmation point, this wave count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2065. Until then, this wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that orange wave c is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled aqua waves (1) through (5).
Aqua waves (1) through (4) are very likely complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the downside in violet wave 5 to complete orange wave c.
At 1.2065 violet wave 5 would 100% the length of violet wave 3.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2110. Movement above this point will shift our target to those of the main daily count.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B and is now moving in a new downtrend in maroon wave C.
Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) to (5).
Black wave (1) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 to 5.
Blue wave 2 retraced over 78.6% of blue wave 1.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in blue wave 3.
At 1.1992 blue wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of blue wave 1.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2216 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1.
If this is a series of first and second waves, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2414.
If this is a leading diagonal, then this count is invalidated by movement above 1.2476.