As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached its target, and then exceeded it by 32 pips.
The main hourly count was invalidated, but the alternate remained intact. I feel, however, that the decline of the past several days is too impulsive to be considered just another move within a triangle.
This is why I substituted the daily count with what I believe to be a more fitting one. And as is frequently the case, both the old and the new counts share the same outlook and consequences to a very large extent, so there shouldn’t be much trouble adopting this new count.
Synopsis: By moving above 1.2211 and then 1.2226, EUR/USD is expected to move sideways to upward to reach between 1.2232 and 1.2261, while it remains below 1.2236.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2246
– Confirmation Point: 1.2211 – 1.2226
– Upward Target: 1.2232 – 1.2261
– Wave number: Micro 4
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 23rd April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave iv is forming a double combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y).
Green waves (w) and (x) each formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (y) is likely forming a flat labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange waves a and b are complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the downside in orange wave c to complete green wave (y), and therefore pink wave iv.
At 1.2153 orange wave c would reach 100% the length of orange wave a.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that orange wave c is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 3 formed an extension labeled aqua waves (1) through (5). It reached exactly 261.8% the length of violet wave 1.
Aqua wave (5) reached exactly 100% the length of aqua wave (1). It’s most likely complete.
The MACD histogram shows a clear divergence between aqua waves (5) and (3), which supports the view that aqua wave (5) and, therefore, violet wave 3 are now complete.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upward in violet wave 4. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2211 and then 1.2226.
At 1.2232 pink wave iv would retrace 23.6% of pink wave iii, then at 1.2261 it would retrace 38.2% of its lwnfrh.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2215 as violet wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of violet wave 1.