Archives for April 2018

The euro moved toward the downside and has come very close to our first target. It's time to pay attention, because the sideways consolidation which began on February 16 is about to complete its course. I've updated the daily chart with an initial target for the imminent rally, while the hourly charts still track the intraday price developments. I'm also leaning more in favor of the alternate hourly count, since it shows better wave relationships in terms of both time and price. Read More

Little happened today in the euro as price merely swang up and down within the range established by the most recent decline. This leaves both counts perfectly valid. Read More

The euro came up right to the middle of the resistance range I had outlined yesterday, creating a new high above 1.2398, and then quickly dropped from there. An interesting observation here is that neither high was accompanied by a similar rise in momentum. In other words, both highs seem to be volatility spikes, rather than genuinely-supported rallies. This is yet one more characteristic you'd expect to find in a triangle. It also occurred to me that perhaps I should include that alternate count I mentioned yesterday, at least once, for two interesting reasons: 1) That, while both counts share the exact same outlook for the next few days, they clearly show how confusing triangles can be to analyze and anticipate, and 2) How Elliott waves can help you arrive at a practical and usable conclusion, even when faced with conflicting counts. Read More

The euro retraced nearly all of the most recent decline, but it did so in nearly twice the time. Coupled with the choppy look of both swings on the hourly chart, I'm very inclined to view them as the first two legs of a flat correction. Admittedly, there is at least one, just about equally good alternative -- that the decline was the entire correction and the subsequent rally is part of the next wave up. But since there's no objective confirmation of either count, and since the former count somewhat subsumes the latter one, I'm going to keep out this alternate to avoid unnecessary confusion. Read More

The euro remained locked tight within a 40-pip range throughout the day -- an uneventful end of the week, if there ever was one! I've been considering the re-inclusion of the "contracting triangle" count on the daily chart, but I kept delaying it in the hope that the market will render it unnecessary. But as the pattern continues to develop, I now find it necessary to bring it back. If you remember, I put the triangle count to the side because it exhibited a distortion in the time relationship between wave 4 (where the triangle is developing) and wave 2. However, the current count is starting to show much more severe problems than a merely unorthodox time relationship. Read More