Archives for April 2018

The euro moved downward for about 75 pips today. Price hasn't reached the invalidation point of the main count, but it certainly didn't do anything to support it, either. In fact, the recent movement raised the total number of charts on today's analysis to 4: two daily and two hourly. The counts themselves are rather simple and straightforward, but the fact that they're all at an equal footing from a technical perspective makes them quite impractical for trading purposes. I'm hoping the situation will clear up a bit by the end of day. Read More

The situation in the euro as it stands now looks like this: we have two alternate counts, each with its own pros and cons, and each pointing in a direction opposite to the other. The main count anticipates another rally that should ideally make a new high above 1.2555. From there, this count follows the alternate, which expects an immediate decline as the first stage of a devastating downtrend. The alternate looks slightly better due to the strength of the most recent decline, but the main has the advantage of being in the direction of a long-term trend. The good news is that both counts have very strict invalidation points and, consequently, very clear confirmation points. And at the hourly level, both counts should have a similar outcome in the immediate-term and the near future. Read More

The euro had a surprisingly strong decline of well over 100 pips, reaching levels that it hadn't visited since the beginning of the year. This main daily count is look less and less likely by the day. Unfortunately, the alternate count is not without its own quirks and irregularities, so our choice is between two less-than-satisfactory options. I'll have to run a complete re-analysis of the situation over the weekend. But for now, I'm uploading both counts and crossing my fingers that the market will show us a clearer path by the end of the day. Read More

As expected the euro moved toward the downside, and came only 2 pips short of reaching its first target. I delayed the analysis today hoping the market will give us some new updates, and I think we now have them. Read More

As expected the euro moved toward the upside, reached its first target, and came midway toward reaching its second target. Read More

As expected the euro moved toward the downside, reached its target, and then exceeded it by 32 pips. The main hourly count was invalidated, but the alternate remained intact. I feel, however, that the decline of the past several days is too impulsive to be considered just another move within a triangle. This is why I substituted the daily count with what I believe to be a more fitting one. And as is frequently the case, both the old and the new counts share the same outlook and consequences to a very large extent, so there shouldn't be much trouble adopting this new count. Read More