The euro dropped just over 100 pips to overlap with the most recent high at 1.2388.
While this technically doesn’t invalidate my general assumption of a third-wave extension, the proportions between the waves of various degrees make me suspicious of this possibility. When the waves get so overlapping and my expectations get shot down several times in a row, I’ve learned that it’s a good idea to consider the possibility of either a triangle or a diagonal.
The possibility of a fourth-wave triangle means that this fourth wave is vastly out of proportion with the preceding second wave of the same degree. The possibility of a fifth-wave ending diagonal is not perfect, but I find it to be the most sensible at present, all things considered.
Synopsis: By moving below 1.2372, EUR/USD is expected to move downward to reach between 1.2358 and 1.2330, while it remains above 1.2239 and below 1.2476.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2239 – 1.2476
– Confirmation Point: 1.2372
– Downward Target: 1.2358 – 1.2330
– Wave number: Minuette (iv)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, or Zigzag Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th March, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave ii retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave i.
Pink wave iii reached exactly twice the length of pink wave i.
Pink wave iv formed a combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced just over 38.2% of pink wave iii.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the upside in pink wave v. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2555.
At 1.2562 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2814 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2154.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave v is forming an ending diagonal labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (iii) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Green wave (iv) is most likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange wave a seems complete.
Orange wave b should find resistance between 1.2436 and 1.2454.
This count expects the euro soon to continue moving toward the downside in orange wave c to complete green wave (iv). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.2372.
At 1.2358 green wave (iv) would retrace 50% of green wave (iii), then at 1.2330 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2239 as green wave (iv) may not move beyond the start of green wave (iii). It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.2476 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in maroon wave C. This will be largely confirmed by movement below 1.2154.
The first initial support-based target is at 1.1554, where price would reach the low of blue wave 4 of the previous uptrend.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2555.