The euro continued higher to reach 1.2461 at the time of this writing, which means I was most likely wrong in supposing the recent rally was corrective.
The most fitting count, all things considered, is that we’re looking at several concentric extensions within a third wave. I must admit I’m not very fond of this count, given the overlapping character of the entire advance, but so far this seems to be the best explanation.
I’ve placed extensive labels of all wave degrees on the hourly chart, but I’ve left the invalidation point at the low of the second wave at subminuette degree. I think this is the safest approach for the time being, until I see enough price data to make me more confident in this view.
Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to move upward to reach between 1.2492 and 1.2526, while it remains above 1.2285 and ideally above 1.2373.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2285
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upward Target: 1.2492 – 1.2526
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th March, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave ii retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave i.
Pink wave iii reached exactly twice the length of pink wave i.
Pink wave iv formed a combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced just over 38.2% of pink wave iii.
Pink wave v is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green waves (i) and (ii) are likely complete.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the upside in green wave (iii).
At 1.2531 green wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.2712 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2154 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that green wave (iii) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange wave i formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5. This impulse has some excellent Fibonacci relationships between its sub-waves.
Orange wave ii formed an abrupt zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C.
Orange wave iii is likely forming a series of extension, beginning with an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 3 is forming an extension labeled aqua waves (1) through (5).
Aqua wave (3) is forming an extension labeled red waves 1 through 5.
Red wave 2 retraced 61.8% of red wave 1.
Red wave 3 reached 261.8% the length of red wave 1.
Red wave 4 should find support somewhere around 1.2422.
This count expects the euro to continue moving generally toward the upside in red wave 5 to complete aqua wave (3), and then continue upward in orange wave iii.
At 1.2492 aqua wave (3) would reach 261.8% the length of aqua wave (1), then at 1.2526 orange wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2285.