EURUSD 27th February, 2018

The euro had its first 100-plus-pips-in-one-day movement in over a week, forming a nice bearish candlestick on the daily chart, so I’d like to start with a quick recap of the situation.

We still have two daily counts, the main expecting one final upward leg and the alternate advocating that a new long-term downtrend has already begun. I’m still leaning more toward the alternate count, but the pattern is still inconclusive and I don’t want to signal a turn too early.

The hourly chart follows the details of the main daily count, but its targets are more conservative. Also note that its confirmation point does not necessarily confirm the larger daily count, and that its invalidation point will only become activated after price reaches the aforementioned confirmation point.

Synopsis: By moving above 1.2355, EUR/USD is expected to move toward the upside to reach between 1.2467 and 1.2622, while it remains above 1.2215.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2215
– Confirmation Point: 1.2355
– Upward Target: 1.2467 – 1.2622
– Wave number: Minute v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th February, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave ii retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave i.

Pink wave iii reached exactly twice the length of pink wave i.

Pink wave iv formed a combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced just over 38.2% of pink wave iii.

This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2555.

At 1.2622 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2874 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that pink wave iv formed a combination labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y). It retraced just over 38.2% of pink wave iii, and is either complete or very near completion.

Green wave (y) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. It reached just over 100% the length of green wave (w).

Price just touched the lower trend line of the channel drawn around green waves (w), (x) and (y). If this count is correct, this is a perfect place for price to start reversing.

This count expects the euro soon to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.2355.

At 1.2467 pink wave v would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2622 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1961 as pink wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of pink wave i. Once price reaches our initial confirmation point, this wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2215.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B.

This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in maroon wave C. This will be largely confirmed by movement below 1.2205, and it will be finally confirmed by movement below 1.1961.

The two initial support-based targets are at 1.1553 and then 1.0355.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2555.

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