The euro had a rather boring repeat-performance — it made a new relative low on diverging momentum, further increasing the odds in favor of the alternate count.
I’m hoping we’ll see a definitive invalidation of the main count before the week ends so that we can start focusing our attention on one count, but I’m not betting on it just yet.
Synopsis: By moving above 1.2555, EUR/USD is expected to move toward the upside to reach between 1.2609 and 1.2825, while it remains above 1.2205.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2205
– Confirmation Point: 1.2555
– Upward Target: 1.2609 – 1.2825
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 22nd February, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave ii retraced nearly 61.8% of pink wave i.
Pink wave iii reached exactly twice the length of pink wave i.
Pink wave iv retraced a little over 38.2% of pink wave iii.
This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B.
At 1.2613 pink wave v would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2865 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2205.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave v is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Green wave (ii) likely formed a double zigzag labeled orange waves w, x and y. It retraced a bit over 78.6% of green wave (i), and it’s either complete or very near completion.
Orange wave y formed a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C.
Violet wave C reached exactly 100% the length of violet wave A, so it’s either complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro soon to start moving toward the upside in green wave (iii). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2555.
At 1.2614 green wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.2831 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2205 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that the euro completed maroon wave B.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in maroon wave C. This will be largely confirmed by movement below 1.2205.
The two initial support-based targets are at 1.1553 and then 1.0355.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2555.