Archives for December 2017

The euro defied my conservative expectations and continued its rally to break above the most recent significant high on the daily chart. This fully confirms our last count revision that wave 3 is now unfolding within its larger ending diagonal. In fact, if the rally picks up any more strength during the first week of the new year, I'll have to conclude that an impulse is unfolding. Price has now reached its typical targets for this stage of development, but it's showing no signs of slowing down just yet. So in order to remain with the trend, I'll assume that there's still room for another advance, while tightening the invalidation point higher. Any movement below this invalidation point will confirm that wave 3 is complete. Read More

The euro pushed prices above my proposed resistance range, giving the pattern a different look in the process. Under these new circumstances, I find myself compelled to revise my count to posit that, within the larger ending diagonal, wave 2 is complete and wave 3 has been unfolding for the past week or so. In practical terms, this doesn't really affect our view at the daily level, where everything remains largely the same. The only real difference takes place on the hourly chart, where our targets to the downside won't be as deep as previously expected. My proposed count on the hourly chart is still a work-in-progress. It fits the price action so far, but there are too many possible alternatives at this point to be definitive about it. It's also worth nothing that volume has been getting increasingly thinner. This is to be expected during the holiday season, but it increases the danger of unexpected volatility spikes, since the market may exhibit extreme reactions to otherwise timid price transactions. Read More

The euro had a bit of an upward climb that remained below our proposed resistance. So far, things are working out as expected. Read More

The euro practically didn't move at all, so nothing changes with our counts. I'm including a very preliminary labeling of the most recent action on the hourly chart, but do keep in mind that it's highly speculative at this point. Read More

The euro saw more bouncing movement within a generally sideways range. The two lastest candlesticks on the daily chart are a doji and a hammer. The coincidence of these two patterns at the end of a decline is often a very good signal that a trend-shift is about to take place. Problem is: they didn't occur at the end of a decline. Zooming down to the hourly chart, I can now finally make out a wave pattern that makes very good sense and explains practically all the confusing action of the past several days. It also anticipates some more corrective action over the coming days, which fits nicely with the typical market situation during the holidays. Speaking of which -- Merry Christmas, everyone! I hope you had a great 2017, and I wish you a fantastic 2018! Remember that the market will be closed on December 25th, 31st, and January 1st. Read More