EURUSD 29th November, 2017

The euro made a new 10-pip low which, incidentally, remained 10 pips of our support line. This was quickly followed by testing (and breaking) two upper trend lines drawn along the most recent swing highs.

I don’t want to jump the gun just yet, as I’m not entirely convinced this downward correction is complete. I would very much like to see price make a clear break of previous resistance levels before I can confidently get behind a bullish count.

Synopsis: By moving above 1.1920 and then 1.1961, EUR/USD is expected to move upward to reach between 1.2065 and 1.2219, while it remains above 1.1817.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1817
– Confirmation Point: 1.1883 – 1.1920
– Upward Target: 1.2065 – 1.2219
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 29th November, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in maroon wave B, which is forming a flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 4 formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced a bit less than 38.2% of blue wave 3.

Blue wave 5 is likely forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave ii retraced nearly 50% of pink wave i.

Pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the upside in pink wave iii.

At 1.2020 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.2209 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1553 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

If pink wave ii is indeed complete, then this wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1712 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that green wave (ii) formed a triple zigzag labeled orange waves w, y and z.

The first orange wave x retraced 38.2% of orange wave w, and the second orange wave x retraced 61.8% of orange wave y.

Orange wave z reached 100% the length of orange wave w.

Overall, green wave (ii) retraced nearly 61.8% of green wave (i). Momentum is showing a bullish divergence. Price broke above both trend lines drawn along the previous swing highs. All this suggests that the correction of green wave (ii) may very likely be complete.

This count expects the euro to start moving toward the upside in green wave iii. This will be very tentatively confirmed by movement above 1.1883, further confirmed by movement above 1.1920, and finally confirmed by movement above 1.1961.

At 1.2065 green wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.2219 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1712 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).

Once price moves above at least two of our confirmation points, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of green wave (ii), which currently stands at 1.1817.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

An alternate hourly count sees that green wave (ii) is forming just a double zigzag labeled orange waves w, x and y.

In this count, orange wave x is forming either an expanded flat, a running flat, a running triangle, or some combination. It should ideally find resistance around or below 1.1910.

This count expects the euro to resume moving toward the downside in orange wave y to complete green wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1817.

At 1.1807 green wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of green wave (i).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1712 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that maroon wave B is complete and that maroon wave C is now unfolding toward the downside.

Maroon wave C is forming an impulse labeled black waves (1) through (5).

Black wave (1) formed a leading diagonal labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Black wave (2) is forming a zigzag labeled blue waves A, B and C.

Blue wave B retraced nearly 50% of blue wave A.

Blue wave C will likely find resistance somewhere within the range between 1.1977 and 1.2020, if it isn’t already complete.

This count expects the euro soon to move toward the downside in black wave (3). This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1712, and it will be finally confirmed by movement below 1.1553.

At 1.1482 black wave (3) would reach 100% the length of black wave (1), then at 1.1149 it would reach 161.8% of its length. These targets are calculated assuming black wave (2) completes at 1.2020.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2092 as black wave (2) may not move beyond the start of black wave (1).

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