As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 13 pips.
Our main count still sees five waves within this recent decline, followed by a rally that exceeded the end of the fourth wave. Assuming our count is correct — and so far there’s no reason to assume otherwise — the previous decline is a completed first wave and the market now is forming a second wave correction.
Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to move generally towards the upside to find resistance between 1.1946 and 1.1976, while it remains below 1.2070.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2070
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1946 – 1.1976
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st August, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in maroon wave B, which is forming a flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).
Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 3 formed an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave v formed an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (v) reached exactly 38.2% the length of green waves (i) and (iii), and it’s within only 29 pips of reaching 100% the length of green wave (i). It’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to move largely towards the downside in blue wave 4, which may be forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.
At 1.1698 blue wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of blue wave 3, then at 1.468 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0829 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1. If blue wave 4 is indeed a zigzag, then this wave count is also invalidated by movement above 1.2070 as pink wave b may not move beyond the start of pink wave a.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v. It’s most likely complete.
Green wave (ii) is likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. It has already retraced about 38.2% of green wave (i). There’s a minor chance that it’s already complete, but given how quickly it has formed relative to green wave (i), this possibility should be left as a last resort.
This count expects the euro to be moving generally towards the upside in green wave (ii).
At 1.1946 green wave (ii) would retrace 50% of green wave (i), then at 1.1976 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2070 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).