As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our initial target, and exceeded it by 36 pips. So far, so good.
The momentum of this decline is now severely oversold, particularly relative to its position right after a major uptrend. However, this doesn’t automatically mean that the market has formed a solid bottom.
In terms of wave analysis, I’m actually tracking six different ways to count the subdivisions of this decline, and it’s unrealistic to list them all here. Four of these counts expect further decline, while the other two expect an immediate or very imminent (albeit temporary) upward reversal. So to cover all our bases, I’m presenting one count from each category.
Do keep in mind, however, that both counts are still highly tentative and subject to change at any time, and their targets are largely speculative at this point. We should hopefully have a more solid picture by tomorrow or the end of the week.
Synopsis: By moving below 1.1880, EUR/USD is expected to move towards the downside to find support somewhere between 1.1853 and 1.1836, while it remains below 1.1946. But by moving above 1.1946, EUR/USD is expected to move towards the upside to find resistance between 1.1953 and 1.1998, while it remains below 1.2070.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1946
– Confirmation Point: 1.1880
– Downwards Target: 1.1853 0 1.1836
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2070
– Confirmation Point: 1.1946
– Upwards Target: 1.1953 – 1.1998
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th August, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in maroon wave B, which is forming a flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).
Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 3 formed an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave v formed an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (v) reached exactly 38.2% the length of green waves (i) and (iii), and it’s within only 29 pips of reaching 100% the length of green wave (i). It’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to move largely towards the downside in blue wave 4, which may be forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.
At 1.1698 blue wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of blue wave 3, then at 1.468 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0829 as blue wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of blue wave 1. If blue wave 4 is indeed a zigzag, then this wave count is also invalidated by movement above 1.2070 as pink wave b may not move beyond the start of pink wave a.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) is likely forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange wave iii reached around 78.6% the length of orange wave i. This is not a typical relationship between third and first waves, but it’s not exactly rare, either.
I’d expect orange wave iv to form a correction that retraces up between 1.1905 and 1.1920. Once it’s complete, this count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in orange wave v. This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.1880.
At 1.1853 orange wave v would reach 61.8% the length of orange wave iii, then at 1.1836 it would reach 78.6% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1946 as orange wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of orange wave i.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate hourly count sees that pink wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v. It should be complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in green wave (ii). This will be largely confirmed by movement above 1.1946.
At 1.1953 green wave (ii) would retrace 38.2% of green wave (i), then at 1.1998 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2070 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).