EURUSD 25th August, 2017

The market slingshot upwards for nearly 200 pips, forming a much longer rally than expected. Thankfully, this also gives us a much better view of the current market condition.

We’ve been working under the assumption that the euro had been stuck in a fourth wave — an assumption that’s been now strongly confirmed. The recent rally looks very much like a thrust out of a triangle, and that gives us an important pointer: post-triangular thrusts are always terminal moves. Therefore, while the recent rally looks very strong and has even made a new high, we should keep in mind it’s not necessarily a bullish signal.

Synopsis: By moving above 1.1967, EUR/USD is expected to move towards the upside to find resistance between 1.1975 and 1.2099, while it remains above 1.1828 and ideally above 1.1898.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1828
– Confirmation Point: 1.1967
– Upwards Target: 1.1975 – 1.2099
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th August, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in maroon wave B, which is forming a flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave v is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Green wave (iii) reached over 161.8% the length of green wave (i).

Green wave (iv) formed a contracting triangle labeled orange waves a through e. It retraced about 23.6% of green wave (iii).

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in green wave (v) to complete pink wave v.

At 1.1975 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.2099 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1773.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that green wave (v) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Orange wave ii retraced 78.6% of orange wave i.

Orange wave iii formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5, reaching over 261.8% the length of orange wave i.

Orange wave iv should find support between 1.1924 and 1.1898.

This count expects the euro soon to move towards the upside in orange wave v to complete green wave (v). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1967.

At 1.1975 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.2099 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1828 as orange wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of orange wave i.

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