Archives for July 2017

Despite the seemingly stable picture on the daily chart, the situation in the EUR/USD market is getting more complicated (and confusing) by the hour. Price is making clear rallies on reasonable momentum, and yet the slope of the advances isn't consistent with the actual percentage gains. This is giving the market a more corrective look, especially on the hourly chart, which again isn't consistent with the typically impulse nature of its current wave position. This is one of those times when the market is so undecided that it ceases to follow any of its usual behaviors, and even a correct count proves to be less than satisfactory. But at the end of it, we can't force the market to behave as we would like it to -- we can only adapt, stay alert, and bide our time until it falls back into more stable patterns. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro moved spent the first half of the day stair-casing towards the downside to reach our first target and come midway towards the second target. From there the market slingshot upwards for nearly 200 pips, before pausing to take its breath. This brought it very close to the first target of our daily count, so everything seems to working out very nicely. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro moved steadily towards the downside. So far it has come within touching distance of our first target. There's a way to count this decline as a completed correction, but I don't think that's the case. For one thing, this correction is currently too short, compared to the preceding impulse. For another, it's uncommon for second-wave corrections to be this shallow. I'm still keeping track of the alternate daily count, in case this turns out to be the beginning of a new downtrend. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Price moved towards the upside as expected and reached both of our targets. This is the good news. On the other hand, this rally is now too long for the main count to accommodate, so even though it matches the direction of the market, we are forced to relabel the waves into a more fitting count. The challenge, as you must have recognized by now, is that the market appears to be a confusing mess right now. To fully make sense of our new count, I'm going to publish a long-term analysis (hopefully this weekend) to cover the details at a larger degree. But until then, I'll leave you with two alternate counts on the daily charts which, despite their being way too complex for my liking, are still the best-fitting possibilities I could come up with at the moment. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 29 pips so far. If my ending-diagonal labeling is correct, then the fifth wave of this diagonal has managed to overthrow the trend line connecting the ends of the first and third waves -- which is a valid, but rare occurrence. For this count to remain valid, this rally must end very soon in order for the third wave not to be the shortest. While it's possible to count the entire move up from 1.1312 as the third wave, this would require some serious acrobatics in the hourly labeling, not to mention that it would give the entire diagonal a very unusual look. But given the profoundly corrective and sideways look of the recent price action, this has to be considered our preferred count, unless the market invalidates it. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More