Archives for June 2017

As expected the euro continued moving towards the upside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 22 pips. The market since has been idly hovering around that level. This is all still perfectly in line with our current analysis. Price is apparently forming a diagonal, which is a consistent reversal precursor after a strong move. The MACD is showing even more bearish divergence, confirming that the price advance is not at all supported by bullish momentum. And from a wave perspective, our count now sees the market is in the final stages of a multi-degree terminal move. Everything is pointing towards an immediate bearish reversal. So far the market has been moving up, but the hourly chart sees there are only a handful of pips left in that direction. If price does continue to go up, we have to rely on the target of the daily chart. The hourly has a much closer invalidation point now, along with possible targets for price to reach once it breaks below it. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro continued moving towards the upside, reached both of our targets, and is currently hovering around our second target. All the indications are now aligned in favor of our current analysis. Price, although still rallying, is clearly moving in a much less impulsive fashion. The MACD is showing massive bearish divergence with price, indicating that momentum is waning. And from a wave perspective, our count now sees the market is just about to enter the fifth wave of a fifth wave of yet a higher fifth wave -- a very terminal position. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Although we were expecting upwards movement, the strength and span of yesterday's rally were a bit of a surprise -- one that's actually giving us great clues as to what the market is doing this week. Seeing this sort of impulsive behavior in this position very strongly suggests that it's a third wave within a post-triangular thrust. This means that the triangle of the fourth wave is now complete and the market is building the final leg in its recent uptrend. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Instead of moving straight down, the market seems to have favored turning into a double zigzag or a more complex correction. Due to the wide range of possible patterns the market can form, we have to leave the invalidation point as low as 1.1119. But since I'm focusing today on one particular possibility, we do have a support line that acts as a "soft" invalidation point for the time being, so long as price reaches our confirmation point. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro first moved towards the upside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 11 pips. There are some indications which suggest that the rally is complete, but it's still too early to be sure. The market seems to have formed an adequate zigzag, but that can easily turn into a double zigzag or a more complex correction. Even if it's only a simple zigzag, it's quite possible for its C-wave to extend. Just about every possibility suggests a corrective decline is in order. If wave D of the triangle is complete, then the resistance at 1.1209 should hold all throughout the day. If it's broken, then wave D is almost certainly still unfolding as a more complex correction in its X-wave -- in which case we have to wait for the market to close in order to reassess the situation and present suitable targets. I'm updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More