Cable unfolded as expected under the alternate count and target was reached and exceeded.
Soon after, Cable reversed directions and unfolded downwards in line with the wave count and the decline was in a five wave structure and we will discuss below -in details- the consequences of such structure on the hourly chart level.
Today`s main hourly count expects Cable to continue unfolding downwards in a motive manner while the alternate count expects that Cable has more to offer upwards before resuming its downtrend.
As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
Synopsis By movement below 1.2775 Cable would be expected to find support at 1.2773 and if exceeded then to 1.2726. If Cable unfolded above 1.2889 Cable would be expected to find resistance at 1.2914 and if exceeded then to 1.2944.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2889
– Confirmation Point: 1.2775
– Downwards Target: 1.2773 — 1.2726
– Wave number: v orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3043 — 1.2788
– Confirmation Point: 1.2889
– Upwards Targets: 1.2914 — 1.2944
– Wave number: (ii) green
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 30th May, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) through (3) black are complete and intermediate wave (5) black is at its early stages.
Intermediate wave (3) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.
Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.
Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
Wave (4) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.
Wave B blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
As far as MACD study goes, MACD is showing a bearish divergence on the daily chart as price action failed to create new highs above the end of wave (2) black while MACD registered higher highs.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2365 and the final confirmation point is at 1.1970.
At 1.1735 wave (5) black would reach 50 % of wave (1) black and at 1.1427 wave (5) black would reach 0.618 of wave (1) black.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3048 as within wave (5) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
A five wave structure are mature on the hourly chart and level and the complete five wave decline from 1.2889 can be viewed as a first wave within wave v orange. First target does not provide us with a practical trading opportunity.
Wave (4) black is seen mature and wave (5) black is at its very early stages.
This count expects that wave C blue unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.
Within wave (5) black it is likely that waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and that wave (iii) green is underway.
Wave (ii) green unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y orange.
Within wave (iii) green, it is likely that wave i through iv orange are mature and that wave v orange has started to unfold downwards.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2775.
At 1.2773 wave v orange would reach equality with wave i orange and at 1.2726 wave (iii) green would reach 200 % of wave (i) green.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2889 as within wave v orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This count explores the possibility of a truncation since Cable completed a five wave decline failing to create a new low.
This count expects that within wave (5) black, waves i and ii pink are mature and wave iii pink is starting to extend lower.
Within wave iii pink, wave (i) green is likely complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave v orange being a truncated fifth wave.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2889.
At 1.2914 wave (ii) green would reach 50 % of wave (i) green and at 1.2944 wave (ii) green would reach 0.618 of wave (i) green.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2788 as within wave (ii) green no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3043 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green.