GBPUSD 25th May, 2017

Cable traded lower as expected under the alternate count and first target was met and exceeded.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to continue unfolding downwards while the alternate count expects Cable to unfold upwards in a corrective manner before resuming its downtrend.

As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

P.S.: Today`s analysis was delayed because of some technical difficulties with my internet connection.

Synopsis By movement below 1.2927 Cable would be expected to find support at 1.2879 and if exceeded then to 1.2808 and finally 1.2786. If Cable unfolded above 1.3047 Cable would be expected to find resistance at 1.3074.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3016
– Confirmation Point: 1.2829
– Downwards Target: 1.2808 — 1.2786
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2928 — 1.2844
– Confirmation Point: 1.2893
– Upwards Targets: 1.2909
– Wave number: iv orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th May, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) through (3) black are complete and intermediate wave (5) black is at its early stages.

Intermediate wave (3) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.

Wave (4) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave B blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.

As far as MACD study goes, MACD is showing a bearish divergence on the daily chart as price action failed to create new highs above the end of wave (2) black while MACD registered higher highs.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2365 and the final confirmation point is at 1.1970.

At 1.1735 wave (5) black would reach 50 % of wave (1) black and at 1.1427 wave (5) black would reach 0.618 of wave (1) black.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3048 as within wave (5) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on 2-hours chart for clarification purposes.

Wave (4) black is seen mature and wave (5) black is at its very early stages.

This count expects that wave C blue unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

Within wave (5) black it is likely that waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and that wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y orange.

Within wave (iii) green, it is likely that wave i and ii orange are mature and that wave iii orange has started to unfold downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2844.

At 1.2808 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange and finally at 1.2786 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3016 as within wave iii orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on 2 hours chart for clarification purposes.

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is that the alternate count expects that within wave (iii) green waves i through iii orange are mature and that wave iv orange has started unfolding upwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2893.

At 1.2909 wave iv orange would reach 0.382 of wave iii orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2844 as within wave iv orange no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2928 as wave iv orange may not enter wave i orange price territory.

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