As expected the euro moved towards the upside and easily surpassed our first target, and so far it hasn’t reached our second target.
It’s been a Monday tradition of the euro to continue in the direction it started on Friday, so chances are this small-time rally will continue. The larger picture still sees all this as a correction in a bear market, and it’s one that’s going through its very final stages.
I’m updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Synopsis: By moving above 1.0934, EUR/USD is expected to move towards the upside to find near resistance between 1.0938 and 1.0959, while remaining below 1.1024 and ideally above 1.0875.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1024 – 1.0875
– Confirmation Point: 1.0934
– Upwards Target: 1.0938 – 1.0959
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 12th May, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that blue wave 2 formed a triple zigzag labeled pink waves w through z, and that blue wave 3 is now moving towards the downside.
Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave i is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in pink wave i. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0851.
This new trend is still at a very early stage so we’ll project our initial targets at the 61.8% and 100% retracement levels of the previous pink wave z: 1.0743 and 1.0570.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1024 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This hourly count sees that green wave (ii) is forming an expanded flat labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange wave c is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 3 reached twice the length of violet wave 1. It’s very likely to be complete.
Violet wave 4 may have been short abrupt, but I suspect it’s still unfolding, possibly in the form of a flat. Either way, it’s very unlikely for it to move below 1.0900.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in orange wave c to complete green wave (ii). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0934.
At 1.0938 green wave (ii) would retrace 50% of green wave (i), then at 1.0959 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1024 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i). It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0875 as violet wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of violet wave 1.