EURUSD: Bearish for the Duration

By moving below 1.0603, EUR/USD is expected to move down to find support between 1.0441 and 1.0233. The market should remain below 1.0906, and it’s likely to find resistance around 1.0777.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0906
– Confirmation Point: 1.0603
– Downwards Target: 1.0441 – 1.0233
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in black wave (C), which is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 2 formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced 61.8% of blue wave 1, and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to moved towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0340.

At 0.9947 blue wave 3 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 0.9354 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.

As price moves below our confirmation point, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of blue wave 2, which currently stands at 1.0906.

Main Daily Chart Wave Count

This count sees that blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave ii formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c). It retraced precisely 61.8% of pink wave i, and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in pink wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.603.

At 1.0441 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.0233 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0906 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

As price moves below our confirmation point, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of pink wave ii, which currently stands at 1.0777.

5 thoughts on “EURUSD: Bearish for the Duration”

  1. Hi Tamer, Thanks for your recent update on your longer term charts. I have attached a 1Hr chart after Fridays close and it appears that wave (iii) is not unfolding in an impulsive manner and I understand the French election may impact price and fair enough, however, my question is how do I account (count) the recent price action?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Z3QvIyW/

    1. Hi Kevin,

      Sorry I couldn’t respond to your comment earlier, it was a hectic weekend. Hope yours was better 😀

      I wish I saw your charts earlier, because I can now see there are large discrepancies in price between our data feeds.

      Anyway, I’m sure you’ve seen how the week started, so my count was clearly wrong. I could count a leading diagonal in the first wave position, but now it must be counted as a correction.

      I’m just about to finish today’s analysis, so please take a look in a couple of minutes and tell me what you think.

  2. Hi Tamer
    There is a lot of empty white space in the charts. Is it not possible to extend the chart a little both down and to the right. By extending you will get a better visual.
    Thanks.

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