EURUSD 3rd April, 2017

I expected the market to start rallying immediately, but it looks like price had to make one final low first.

On both the daily and the hourly charts, the decline seems to have ended with a bullish doji, accompanied by significant bullish momentum divergence on the hourly chart.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Synopsis: By moving above 1.0680, EUR/USD is expected to move up to find resistance between 1.0774 and 1.0805, while it remains below 1.0906. So far no clear support line is available, but we’ll include it once the market starts moving towards the upside.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0906
– Confirmation Point: 1.0680
– Upwards Target: 1.0774 – 1.0805
– Wave number: Subminuette b
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 3rd April, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 2 is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Green wave (b) is likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro to continue moving generally towards the downside in green wave (b).

At 1.0652 green wave (b) would retrace 61.8% of green wave (a), then at 1.0583 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0495 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that orange wave a completed (or is just about to complete) an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.

This count expects the euro soon to start moving towards the upside in orange wave b. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0680.

At 1.0774 orange wave b would retrace 50% of orange wave a, then at 1.0805 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0906 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 2 formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y, retracing almost 61.8% of blue wave 1.

Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave i is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0495.

At 1.0340 blue wave 3 would reach the low of blue wave 1, then at 0.9947 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0906 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i).