Price made another test of the 1.0950 high, but the market rejected it and forced it back down to 1.0855.
It’s a little too early to make definitive statements, but I still see nothing to change my bearish view of the market. However, I’ll leave the invalidation point on the daily chart at a level that accommodates the possibility of another small corrective rally.
I’m updating the counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Synopsis: By movement below 1.0855, EUR/USD is expected to move down to find support between 1.0760 and 1.0570, while remaining below 1.0951.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0951
– Confirmation Point: 1.0855
– Downwards Target: 1.0760 – 1.0570
– Wave number: Minuette (i)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th April, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that blue wave 2 formed a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y. It retraced a little bit over 61.8% of blue wave 1, and it’s most likely complete.
Blue wave 3 must be forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0570.
At 0.9991 blue wave 3 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 0.9398 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.
Once price reaches our confirmation point or we see another confirmatory signal, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of blue wave 2, which currently stands at 1.0951.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This hourly count sees that pink wave i of blue wave 3 is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Green wave (i) is likely forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange wave ii looks like it’s forming a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C. It should be near completion.
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in green wave (i). This will be largely confirmed by movement below 1.0855.
At 1.0760 price would retrace 50% of the previous green wave (c), then at 1.0570 it would retrace 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0951 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave 1.