On Tuesday`s session, Cable unfolded sharply downwards invalidating the main hourly count and increasing the probabilities of the alternate count.
We have been anticipating a trend reversal as Cable has showed a significant decrease in momentum with every upwards push. However, more evidence is required to shift our focus jump on the bearish wagon for the mid\long term.
We are updating the main count -bearish count- according to the latest price action with tight invalidation, confirmation and target points and as well adding an alternate hourly count -bullish count- which expects a fourth wave is underway.
As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
Synopsis By movement below 1.2376 Cable would be expected to find support at 1.2359 and if exceeded then to 1.2347. If Cable unfolded above 1.2419 Cable would be expected to find resistance at 1.2428 and if exceeded then to 1.2459.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2419
– Confirmation Point: 1.2376
– Downwards Targets: 1.2359 — 1.2347
– Wave number: v pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2539 — 1.2376
– Confirmation Point: 1.2419
– Upwards Targets: 1.2428 — 1.2459
– Wave number: iv pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Double Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 28th March, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) through (3) black are complete and intermediate wave (4) black is likely complete as well and wave (5) black is at its very early stages.
Intermediate wave (3) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.
Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.
Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
Wave (4) black unfolded as a triangle correction labeled waves A through E blue.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2616.
At 1.2629 wave c pink would reach 0.382 of wave a pink within wave E blue.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2109 as within wave E blue wave b pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave a pink and as well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2707 as wave E blue may not exceed the end of wave C blue.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.1970.
First target is calculated based on a thrust out of a triangle at 1.1699 and if exceeded then to 1.1614 wave (5) black would reach 0.382 of wave (1) black.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2616 as within wave (5) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count expects that wave (4) black is mature as a triangle labeled waves A through E blue and that wave (5) black has started unfolding downwards.
Wave E blue unfolded upwards as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.
Wave a pink unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Within wave (5) black it is likely that wave Wave 1 blue is unfolding downwards as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with waves i through iv pink complete and wave v pink is underway.
As far as MACD study goes, MACD shows a bullish divergence which -at this stage- does not agree with the main view.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2376.
At 1.2359 wave v pink would reach 0.786 of wave i pink and at 1.2347 wave v pink would reach equality with wave i pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2419 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This count expects that wave iv pink is incomplete and that it has more to offer upwards.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2419.
At 1.2428 wave iv pink would reach 0.236 of wave iii pink and at 1.2459 wave iv pink would reach 0.382 of wave iii pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2376 as within wave iv pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave and as well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2539 as wave iv pink may not enter the price territory of wave i pink.