Cable drifted slowly upwards as expected and target was reached and exceeded.
We are modifying the main hourly count according to the latest price action and as well adding an alternate hourly count, we will wait for evidence suggesting trend reversal before jumping into the bearish wagon even though the bullish trend is showing signs of weakness.
Main hourly count expects that Cable has one more push upwards before reversing directions and moving downwards within an impulse.
On the other hand, the alternate hourly count expects that upwards correction is mature and that Cable has started unfolding towards the downside.
As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
Synopsis By movement above 1.2406 Cable would be expected to find resistance at 1.2421 and if exceeded then to 1.2439. If Cable unfolded below 1.2241 and eventually 1.2109 Cable would be expected to find support at 1.1949 and if exceeded then to 1.17774 and finally to 1.1665.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2241 — 1.2570
– Confirmation Point: 1.2406
– Upwards Targets: 1.2421 — 1.2439
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: zigzag
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2406
– Confirmation Point: 1.2241 — 1.2109
– Downwards Targets: 1.1949 — 1.1774 — 1.1665
– Wave number: iii orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 17th March, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) through (4) black are complete and intermediate wave (5) black is at its very early stages.
Intermediate wave (3) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.
Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.
Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
Wave (4) black unfolded as a triple combination correction labeled waves W, X, X, Y and Z blue complete.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.1970.
We have a very initial target for the completion of wave (5) black at 1.1154 as at that level wave (5) black would reach 0.618 of wave (1) black. It is worth noting that we will be able to calculate short term targets once wave (5) black starts to subdivide towards the downside.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2776 as within wave (5) black wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count expects that within wave (5) black waves 1 and 2 blue are highly likely complete and wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.
Within wave 3 blue, it is likely that wave i pink is starting to unfold downwards with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.
Wave (ii) green unfolded upwards as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y orange.
This count expects that wave (iii) green is extending downwards with wave i orange complete and wave ii orange has more to offer towards the upside.
Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
Wave ii orange is unfolding upwards as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple with waves A and B purple complete and wave C purple is unfolding upwards.
Wave A purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
Wave C purple is unfolding upwards likely as an ending diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua with waves (1) through (4) aqua complete and wave (5) aqua is underway.
As far as MACD study goes, MACD shows a bearish divergence between the start of wave i orange and the end of wave ii orange suggesting that upwards correction should prove limited.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2406.
At 1.2421 wave (5) aqua would reach 50 % of wave (3) aqua and at 1.2439 wave C purple would reach equality with wave A purple.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2570 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i orange and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2241 as within an ending diagonal no fourth wave may retrace more than 100 % of its second wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange as this count expects that wave ii orange is mature and that wave iii orange has started unfolding downwards.
Wave ii orange is seen mature as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y purple with wave W purple unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua.
Wave Y purple unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua with wave (B) aqua unfolding as a triangle labeled waves A through E red.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2241 and the final confirmation is at 1.2109.
At 1.1949 wave iii orange would reach equality with wave i orange and at 1.1774 wave iii orange would reach 1.382 of wave i orange. Finally, at 1.1665 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2406 as within wave iii orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.