Cable unfolded upwards as expected and both first and second targets were reached and exceeded. We are updating the main hourly count according to the latest price action.
Even though the upwards corrective structure is likely mature, we will wait for evidence suggesting trend reversal before jumping into the bearish wagon.
Main hourly count expects that Cable has one more push upwards before reversing directions and moving downwards within an impulse.
On the other hand, the alternate hourly count expects that upwards correction is mature and that Cable has started unfolding towards the downside.
As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
Synopsis By movement above 1.2378 Cable would be expected to find resistance at 1.2392. If Cable unfolded below 1.2241 and eventually 1.2109 Cable would be expected to find support at 1.2042 and if exceeded then to 1.1920 and if exceeded then to 1.1745 and finally to 1.1637.
Main Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2241 — 1.2570
– Confirmation Point: 1.2378
– Upwards Targets: 1.2392
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Double zigzag
Alternate Hourly Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2378
– Confirmation Point: 1.2241 — 1.2109
– Downwards Targets: 1.1920 — 1.1745 — 1.1637
– Wave number:iii orange
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 16th March, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) through (4) black are complete and intermediate wave (5) black is at its very early stages.
Intermediate wave (3) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.
Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.
Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e pink.
Wave (4) black unfolded as a triple combination correction labeled waves W, X, X, Y and Z blue complete.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.1970.
We have a very initial target for the completion of wave (5) black at 1.1154 as at that level wave (5) black would reach 0.618 of wave (1) black. It is worth noting that we will be able to calculate short term targets once wave (5) black starts to subdivide towards the downside.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2776 as within wave (5) black wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count expects that within wave (5) black waves 1 and 2 blue are highly likely complete and wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.
Within wave 3 blue, it is likely that wave i pink is starting to unfold downwards with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.
Wave (ii) green unfolded upwards as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y orange.
This count expects that wave (iii) green is extending downwards with wave i orange complete and wave ii orange has more to offer towards the upside.
Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
Wave ii orange is unfolding upwards as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y purple with waves W and X purple complete and wave Y purple is unfolding upwards.
As far as MACD study goes, MACD shows a bearish divergence between the start of wave i orange and the end of wave ii orange suggesting that upwards correction should prove limited.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2378.
At 1.2392 wave ii orange would reach 0.618 of wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2570 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i orange and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2241 as within wave Y purple no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii orange as this count expects that wave ii orange is mature and that wave iii orange has started unfolding downwards.
Wave ii orange is seen mature as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple with wave A purple unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2241 and the final confirmation is at 1.2109.
At 1.1920 wave iii orange would reach equality with wave i orange and at 1.1745 wave iii orange would reach 1.382 of wave i orange. Finally, at 1.1637 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 of wave i orange.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2378 as within wave iii orange no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.